DETERMINING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER INDICATORS ON PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT

АННОТАЦИЯ

Поток пассажиров, путешествующих на общественном транспорте, в основном определяется суммой количества проданных билетов и количества пассажиров, пользующихся ежемесячными проездными билетами. В зависимости от количества проданных билетов погодные показатели, такие как температура, влажность и осадки, также влияют на поток пассажиров, а также на количество рабочих и выходных дней, праздников, отпусков и крупных событий.

Погодные показатели играют важную роль в прогнозировании потока пассажиров в общественном транспорте. Температура ниже -50 и осадки приведут к увеличению продаж билетов в будние дни, увеличению примерно на 30% пассажиропотока в общественном транспорте. В условиях осадков и низких температур в выходные дни поток пассажиров в общественном транспорте значительно сокращается по сравнению с рабочими днями. Изменение пассажиропотока в зависимости от погодных условий связано с географической вероятностью пунктов назначения и местоположений пассажиров. Научный подход к этому вопросу требует определения взаимосвязи между пассажиропотоком и погодой в общественном транспорте. В статье рассматривается взаимосвязь между пассажиропотоком и погодными условиями на маршрутных автобусах.

ABSTRACT

The flow of passengers traveling on public transport is mainly determined by the sum of the number of tickets sold and the number of passengers using monthly travel tickets. Depending on the number of tickets sold, weather indicators such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation also affect the flow of passengers, along with a number of work and weekend days, holidays, vacations, and major events.

Weather indicators play an important role in forecasting the flow of passengers on public transport. Temperatures below -5⁰ and rainfall will lead to an increase in ticket sales on weekdays, an increase of about 30% in passenger traffic on public transport. In the conditions of precipitation and low temperatures on weekends, the flow of passengers on public transport is significantly reduced compared to working days. The variation of passenger flow depending on weather conditions is related to the geo-probability of passengers ’destinations and locations. The scientific approach to this issue requires determining the relationship between passenger flow and weather in public transport. The article examines the relationship between passenger flow and weather performance on directional buses.

Ключевые слова: пассажир, общественный транспорт, погодные показатели, температура, время в пути, влажность, осадки.

Keywords: Passenger, public transport, weather indicators, temperature, route time, humidity,  precipitation.

1. Introduction

Today, the number of permanent residents, guests, workers and students in Tashkent is growing day by day. Transport services for the majority of passengers are provided by bus routes of JSC "Toshshahartranshizmat". About 240 million passengers are delivered to their destinations each year. This, in turn, requires scientific research on the variability of passenger flows on the routes and the factors that affect them.

Population growth will lead to an increase in demand for reliable service and quality of service in public transport. This, in turn, requires a serious analysis of each of the factors influencing changes in passenger traffic on public transport, in particular the degree to which weather indicators affect the flow of passengers. One of the biggest influencing factors on passenger flow is temperature and humidity. Therefore, it is important to conduct research on the impact of weather indicators on the flow of passengers on public transport. There is a lot of scientific research being done in this regard by researchers all over the world. For example, researchers from the Department of Meteorology, Freie Universit¨at Berlin, Germany, KM Nissen, N. Becker, OD¨ahne, M. Rabe, J. Scheffler, M. Solle, and U Ulbrich, studied how weather conditions in Berlin affect passenger traffic. carried away. The study found that the flow of passengers on public transport in Berlin was determined by ticket sales. In Berlin, the share of tickets sold in unfavorable weather conditions has been percentageed, and the share of tickets sold by bus drivers has been analyzed to increase during inclement weather. [1] Technological University Dublin - Blanchardstown Campus researchers Markus Hofmann and Margaret O’Mahony studied weather performance of buses in weather conditions. The study developed recommendations for dispatchers to take into account weather conditions when compiling bus schedules. The study analyzed the relationships between changes in passenger flow in weather conditions for 12 months of the year. [2] The Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong researcher Sui Taoa, and Jonathan Corcoranb, Francisco Rowec, and Mark Hickman conducted research to develop models of the dependence of local weather conditions on bus travel times. those who went. The study modeled the effect of weather on the hourly movement of buses with the functional capabilities of the region. The study was calculated to obtain the delayed effects of buses in a data set of transit smart cards and detailed measurements of weather in time units. [3] Researchers Syeed Anta Kashfi of Queensland University of Technology, Australia and Associate Professor Jonathan Bunker conducted research on the effects of weather on bus traffic. The study examined the effect of adverse weather conditions on bus traffic. The issues of weather dependence of bus route length and travel time and the impact of private vehicles on buses in adverse weather conditions were studied. [4] .

Analysis of the research shows that a lot of research has been done to take into account weather conditions in the development of public transport traffic in the world, but the impact of weather indicators in forecasting passenger flow in Tashkent has not been studied. The purpose of the study was to determine the relationship between passenger traffic and weather in public transport in Tashkent.

2. Research methodology

In order to study the factors affecting the flow of passengers on public transport in Tashkent, the experience of developed countries in forecasting the flow of passengers on public transport, all the factors affecting the movement, modern methods of passenger service on public transport were analyzed.

Figure 1. The main factors influencing the flow of passengers in public transport

Description of the main factors influencing the flow of passengers in public transport.

- Daylight hours (busy time - usually between 7⁰⁰ – 9⁰⁰ and 17⁰⁰ – 19⁰⁰, non-busy time);

- Season (season, month);

- Days of the week (weekdays and weekends);

- Weather conditions (temperature, precipitation and humidity);

- Holidays (school and student holidays, additional holidays);

- Holidays (January 1 - New Year, March 8 - International Women's Day, March 21 - Navruz,  

May 9 - Victory Day, September 1 - Independence Day, October 1 - Teachers 'and Coaches'

Day, December 8 - Constitution Day, Ramadan and Sacrifice hayiti;

- Major events (sports competitions, concerts, conferences, symposiums);

- Geoposition - Demographic and other indicators of the city and region:

3. Analyzes

Table 1

Indicators of passenger traffic by mode of transport in the Republic of Uzbekistan

1) The data is clear

2) Preliminary data

According to the dynamics of passenger traffic described in Table 1, in 2013-2020, the share of road transport in the total passenger turnover of the country's transport system remained stable at 95-99%. The growth of passenger turnover in road transport in 2013-2019 is an average of 4-6% annually.

The study of passenger flow is carried out on weekdays and weekends. Impact of weather conditions According to the analysis of world scientists, weekends have a greater impact on passenger turnover on public transport. Another factor influencing the flow of public transport passengers in Tashkent is the fact that pupils and students do not use public transport during the holidays and holidays from schools, colleges and universities. According to research, this influencing factor is evidenced by the busy traffic of public transport, which coincides with the time of the day from 7 to 9 o'clock in the morning. There are several ways to determine passenger flow. It can be determined by calculating the flow of passengers relative to the tickets sold and adding to it the percentage of passengers traveling on the basis of electronic, monthly payment cards. The general calculation of passenger flow is based on the tickets sold in the experience of foreign countries. Passenger flow is variable on a rainy, frosty, low-humidity dry day, and even on open-air days. The flow of passengers is significantly reduced, even during inclement weather at night on weekends. It is expedient to study the effect of weather on public transport traffic in two ways, absolute and relative methods. [5,6]

The impact of weather indicators on the flow of passengers during the movement of public transport is distributed throughout the route. The impact of weather indicators on the flow of passengers was analyzed in relation to the number of passengers carried in 2019 on buses belonging to the 1st bus palace of JSC "Toshshahartranshizmat" in Tashkent [7,8]. (Figure 1)

Table 2.

Average values of the number of passengers carried on the buses of the 1st Bus Palace in 2019 and the weather indicators

Tashkent has a population of 2.7 million. In 2019, the Republic of Uzbekistan was visited by 6,748,500 tourists, of which 19% are tourists in Tashkent. In Tashkent, passengers have a choice of public transport. Different types of transport are served by passenger transport. These include subways, buses, and taxis [9,10,11].

4. Research results

The absolute method assumes a change in the flow of passengers in a way that is not dependent on the bus drivers. In a relative way, the behavior associated with weather effects in drivers driving a bus is understood. Studies show that the convenience of waiting times and places for public transport also affects the flow of passengers in adverse weather conditions. This will depend on the flow of passengers on public transport.

Figure 2. Average passenger flow and air temperature

The highest temperature in the analyzed year was in July-August. As can be seen from this graph, the lowest rate of passenger flow corresponds to the highest months of temperature. Another factor influencing the flow of passengers is the fact that schoolchildren and students are on vacation in July-August [12,13]. The months with the highest passenger traffic are April and December. In December, we can see that the air temperature dropped by an average of -50, which in turn led to an increase in passenger traffic during this time. According to a survey of passengers, they use public transport more than they use private transport when the temperature is low and freezing.

Figure 3. Passenger flow and humidity level (%) averaged indicators

When examining the relationship between the average monthly passenger traffic figures and the humidity of the weather at the time of analysis, the highest assenger traffic was observed in April, when humidity levels were lowest [14,15].

Figure 4. Passenger flow and precipitation level (mm) averaged indicators

The lowest number of passengers recorded in July-August, when the level of precipitation was the lowest, was also related to the school and student holiday periods.

5. Conclusion

In conclusion, it can be said that in unfavorable weather conditions on public transport, the ability to predict changes in passenger flow has a positive impact on the quality of public transport services [16]. The study found that ignoring weather indicators and the flow of passengers on public transport leads to a decrease in the quality of service [17]. When planning the number and type of buses on the route (according to capacity), it is advisable to develop by forecasting the flow of passengers, taking into account weather conditions. It is possible to take into account each of the weather indicators in the development of the traffic schedule and forecast the flow of passengers, to ensure the range of movement of buses and to increase the reliability of passenger service.

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