THE IMPORTANCE OF FORESIGHT TECHNOLOGY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE FIELD OF OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY

ABSTRACT

This scientific article comprehensively examines the theoretical and methodological foundations of foresight technology, its main types, and the scientific and practical mechanisms of its application in occupational safety systems. The study analyzes the role of the foresight approach in modern safety management systems, emphasizing its significance in the early identification of potential hazards and occupational risks in production processes, as well as in their systematic analysis and effective management. In addition, the study scientifically explores key foresight instruments such as strategic planning, scenario development, expert assessment (Delphi method), and risk assessment.

The obtained results confirm that the foresight approach is an important innovative tool for establishing proactive safety management rather than a reactive one within occupational safety systems. The application of this technology contributes to increasing industrial safety levels, reducing economic losses, and ensuring the protection of human health.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В данной научной статье всесторонне рассматриваются теоретические и методологические основы форсайт-технологий, их основные виды, а также научно-практические механизмы их применения в системе охраны труда. В исследовании анализируется роль форсайт-подхода в современных системах управления безопасностью, при этом особое внимание уделяется его значению в раннем выявлении потенциальных опасностей и профессиональных рисков в производственных процессах, а также их системному анализу и эффективному управлению. Кроме того, в работе научно обоснованы ключевые инструменты форсайта, такие как стратегическое планирование, разработка сценариев, экспертная оценка (метод Дельфи) и оценка рисков.

Полученные результаты подтверждают, что форсайт-подход является важным инновационным инструментом формирования проактивного управления безопасностью, в отличие от реактивного подхода, в системе охраны труда. Применение данной технологии способствует повышению уровня промышленной безопасности, снижению экономических потерь и обеспечению защиты здоровья человека.

Keywords: foresight, occupational safety, occupational risk, hazard analysis, scenario analysis, Delphi method, strategic planning, safety management, proactive approach.

Ключевые слова: форсайт, охрана труда, профессиональный риск, анализ опасностей, сценарный анализ, метод Дельфи, стратегическое планирование, управление безопасностью, проактивный подход.

Introduction. The rapid development of modern industrial production systems, along with the widespread implementation of digitalization and automation processes, is leading to an increasing complexity of working conditions. This, in turn, raises the likelihood of emerging new types of hazards and occupational risks within production environments [1]. The occupational safety system is aimed at protecting the life and health of employees and primarily focuses on preventing workplace accidents and occupational diseases [2].

Traditional safety approaches are often reactive in nature, relying on the analysis of existing hazards and already occurred incidents. However, such approaches are not sufficiently effective in addressing the challenges of today’s complex industrial systems [3]. Therefore, the need for early risk forecasting and strategic risk management is becoming increasingly important.

In this context, foresight technology has emerged as an approach that enables the scientific forecasting and management of future social, economic, and technological developments [4]. Foresight initially emerged in the mid-20th century as a response to accelerating scientific and technological progress and the growing need for strategic planning. It has since been widely applied in public administration, innovation policy, and industrial sectors [5].

The foresight approach is based on methods such as scenario analysis, the Delphi expert method, trend identification, and roadmapping [6]. These methods make it possible not only to anticipate future changes but also to model and manage them on a scientific basis.

Therefore, the implementation of foresight technology in occupational safety systems is of significant scientific and practical importance, as it contributes to improving safety levels, reducing economic losses, and enhancing safety culture [8].

Materials and methods. This study aims to examine the theoretical and practical foundations of foresight technology and to determine the outcomes of its application in occupational safety systems. The research methodology is based on a comprehensive approach focused on analyzing foresight methods and assessing their integration into occupational safety systems [1].

The following scientific methods were employed in the research process: system analysis, comparative analysis, expert evaluation (Delphi method), scenario development, and risk assessment techniques [2]. These methods made it possible to thoroughly examine the key components of the foresight approach and evaluate their effectiveness in occupational safety management.

Overall, the research methodology represents an integrated approach aimed at examining foresight technology from a theoretical perspective and identifying its potential to enhance safety performance within occupational safety systems [6].

Results and discussion. Foresight is a scientific and methodological approach that extends beyond simple future forecasting. It is used for the systematic analysis of future development trajectories of social, economic, technological, and scientific processes, for developing alternative scenarios, and for supporting strategic decision-making [1]. The key distinction of foresight is that it is not a deterministic forecast; rather, it is based on modeling multiple possible future scenarios under conditions of uncertainty [2].  Historically, the foresight concept emerged in the mid-20th century, in the post–World War II period, as a result of the rapid acceleration of scientific and technological progress and the intensification of global competition [3]. Initially, this approach was applied within military and strategic research in the United States and the United Kingdom, with the primary objective of ensuring future technological superiority and identifying potential risks in advance. Later, in the 1970s–1980s, Japan widely integrated foresight into its industrial policy and innovation development strategy, transforming it into a state-level planning instrument [4].

Today, foresight has become a globally used strategic management tool. It plays a significant role in areas such as the innovation economy, energy policy, environmental sustainability, healthcare systems, education strategy, and digital transformation processes [5]. The main reasons for applying foresight in these fields include the high level of uncertainty in complex systems, the increasing speed of change, and the growing need for long-term decision-making.

The foresight approach, however, provides the following scientific and practical opportunities in occupational safety:

First, it enables the forecasting of the evolution of risk factors in production processes. This helps to identify potential hazards that may arise with the introduction of new technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and automated systems [8].

Second, it facilitates the development of a dynamic occupational risk assessment system. In other words, risks are not treated as static elements but are analyzed as time-dependent and continuously evolving systems [9].

Table 1.

Directions of Applying Foresight in Occupational Safety

Thirdly, preventive strategies aimed at preventing workplace accidents are developed. This ensures a transition from the principle of “responding after an incident occurs” to the principle of “preventing incidents before they occur” [10].

At the same time, there are certain limitations in the practical implementation of foresight. In particular, the need for highly qualified expert groups, the requirement for large volumes of statistical and analytical data, and the insufficient development of a strategic thinking culture within organizations hinder the widespread adoption of this approach [13].

Table 2.

Areas of Application of Foresight Technology in Occupational Safety

Overall, foresight technology is considered not merely as a supporting tool in occupational safety systems, but as a strategic foundation for safety management, representing a scientific approach that enhances decision-making quality under conditions of risk and uncertainty and elevates industrial safety to a new and higher level [14].

Conclusion. This scientific study has analyzed the theoretical and methodological foundations of foresight technology and its scientific and practical aspects of application in occupational safety systems. The results of the study demonstrate that, unlike traditional reactive safety systems, the foresight approach forms a proactive model focused not only on identifying risks but also on forecasting and managing them in advance.

The instruments of foresight technology, such as scenario analysis, the Delphi expert method, trend identification, and strategic planning, serve as an important scientific basis in occupational safety systems for comprehensive occupational risk assessment, identifying the dynamics of hazard development, and developing effective preventive measures. This, in turn, significantly reduces the likelihood of workplace accidents and occupational diseases.

Furthermore, the foresight approach strengthens strategic management in occupational safety systems, contributes to the development of safety culture, enables early identification of new types of risks associated with innovative technologies, and supports the development of adaptive management mechanisms. As a result, it improves workplace safety levels, reduces economic losses, and enhances the protection of human health.

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