THE HISTORY OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN 2017-2022

УДК 339.1

Abstract

This article examines the history of economic relations between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2017-2022. The study treats bilateral economic cooperation not as a simple sequence of trade statistics, but as a historically significant transformation of regional interaction in Central Asia. The paper analyzes the political context that emerged after the renewal of Uzbekistan's neighborhood policy, the institutionalization of economic dialogue, trade turnover dynamics, investment cooperation, industrial projects, interregional forums, border cooperation, and transport-logistics connectivity. A calculated analytical section is included to show the scale and direction of change: trade turnover expanded strongly between 2017 and 2019, the pandemic created a temporary contraction in 2020, and the recovery of 2021 confirmed the resilience of bilateral economic ties. The scientific novelty of the article is that Uzbek-Kazakh economic relations are interpreted as a historically conditioned mechanism of regional economic integration, where political trust, cross-border infrastructure, business networks, and complementary sectoral interests jointly shaped a new quality of partnership. The article argues that 2017-2022 should be regarded as a formative period in which bilateral cooperation moved from episodic trade expansion toward a strategic model of economic interdependence.

Аннотация

В статье рассматривается история экономических отношений между Республикой Узбекистан и Республикой Казахстан в 2017-2022 годах. Двустороннее сотрудничество анализируется не только как совокупность торгово-экономических показателей, но и как важный исторический этап формирования новой модели регионального экономического взаимодействия в Центральной Азии. Особое внимание уделено динамике товарооборота, инвестиционным проектам, промышленной кооперации, межрегиональным форумам, приграничной торговле и транспортно-логистическим связям. Научная новизна заключается в исторической интерпретации узбекско-казахстанского экономического сотрудничества как процесса перехода от обычных торговых контактов к стратегической взаимозависимости.

Keywords: Uzbekistan; Kazakhstan; economic relations; historical analysis; trade turnover; investment cooperation; industrial cooperation; regional integration; Central Asia; transport and logistics; strategic partnership.

Ключевые слова: Узбекистан; Казахстан; экономические отношения; исторический анализ; товарооборот; инвестиции; промышленная кооперация; региональная интеграция; Центральная Азия.

SCIENTIFIC NOVELTY AND RESEARCH CONTRIBUTION

The main scientific contribution of this paper is its historical interpretation of the 2017-2022 period as a turning point in Uzbek-Kazakh economic relations. Earlier descriptions of bilateral relations often emphasize separate trade figures or diplomatic events. This article links those indicators to a broader historical process: the emergence of a more pragmatic, institutionally supported, and regionally oriented model of economic cooperation. The novelty lies in three aspects. First, the article connects economic growth with the post-2016 transformation of Uzbekistan's regional policy. Second, it explains trade, investment, industrial cooperation, and logistics as mutually reinforcing components of one historical process. Third, it introduces calculated indicators to show that the apparent recovery after the pandemic was not accidental, but reflected deeper structural interdependence between the two economies.

1. Introduction

The modern history of relations between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan cannot be understood only through the prism of formal diplomacy. Both states occupy a central place in the political and economic geography of Central Asia, share long historical and cultural connections, and possess complementary economic structures. Kazakhstan has a broad industrial, raw-material, grain, energy, and transit base, while Uzbekistan has a large consumer market, diversified manufacturing capacity, labor resources, agricultural potential, and increasing industrial ambition. These features have made bilateral relations naturally important since independence, but the period of 2017-2022 gave them a new intensity and a new institutional content.

The year 2017 became especially important because Uzbekistan's foreign policy began to prioritize constructive relations with neighboring states. This change reduced many practical barriers that had previously limited cross-border economic cooperation. Political dialogue became more regular, regional forums gained practical significance, and government-level decisions began to be translated into concrete commercial, investment, and infrastructure projects. In this context, Kazakhstan emerged not only as a neighboring state, but also as one of Uzbekistan's most important regional economic partners.

The relevance of this topic is determined by the fact that Uzbek-Kazakh economic cooperation influences the broader economic architecture of Central Asia. Bilateral trade affects regional supply chains; investment cooperation creates new industrial links; transport and logistics cooperation determines access to external markets; and border cooperation strengthens local economic development. Therefore, the study of economic relations in 2017-2022 is important not only for the history of two states, but also for understanding regional integration processes in Central Asia.

2. Sources, historiography and research gap

The source base of this study consists of analytical materials, official statements, statistical indicators, and the factual data contained in the provided manuscript on the history of Uzbekistan's economic relations with Kazakhstan. The manuscript emphasizes several key indicators: the growth of trade turnover after 2017, Kazakhstan's place among Uzbekistan's leading trade partners, the expansion of joint enterprises, the development of interregional forums, and the increasing importance of transport and logistics cooperation.

The historiographical problem is that many works describe economic cooperation in a descriptive manner: they list agreements, visits, trade volumes, and investment projects. Such an approach is useful, but it does not always explain why the 2017-2022 period was historically different from previous stages. The present article addresses this gap by treating the period as a transition from a relatively limited cooperation format to a more complex system of strategic economic interdependence.

Another research gap is the insufficient use of calculated indicators in historical-economic articles. For this reason, the article includes a small analytical block. The calculations are not intended to replace a full econometric model; rather, they help clarify the scale, direction, and historical meaning of the changes that took place in bilateral relations.

3. Methodology

The article uses the historical-comparative method, chronological analysis, systemic interpretation, and basic quantitative calculations. The historical-comparative method makes it possible to compare the pre-2017 character of relations with the new phase that emerged after Uzbekistan intensified cooperation with neighboring countries. Chronological analysis helps to trace the sequence of events from the adoption of economic cooperation strategies to the growth of forums, joint ventures, and trade volumes.

The systemic approach is especially important because trade, investment, industrial cooperation, logistics, and regional forums are not isolated phenomena. They function as parts of a single economic cooperation system. For example, trade growth creates incentives for logistics improvements; logistics improvements facilitate regional trade; regional forums generate investment agreements; and investment agreements strengthen industrial cooperation.

The quantitative part of the study calculates growth rates, compound growth, decline during the pandemic, trade balance indicators, import-export ratios, and the increase in the number of enterprises with Kazakh capital. These indicators are derived from the numerical information provided in the source manuscript and are used for analytical interpretation within the historical discussion.

4. Historical background of the new stage

Uzbek-Kazakh relations developed throughout the independence period, but the post-2016 transformation in Uzbekistan created a more favorable environment for practical cooperation. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's policy of expanding relations with neighboring states gave special importance to Central Asia. Kazakhstan, as the largest economy in the region and a key transit partner, naturally became one of the main directions of this renewed policy.

In 2017, the adoption of an economic cooperation strategy for 2017-2019 gave bilateral relations a more structured character. The strategy encouraged growth in trade, investment, and industrial ties. It also reflected the understanding that the economies of the two states had unused potential. The development of this potential required not only political will, but also institutional mechanisms, forums, agreements, and direct business contacts.

This period also revealed the changing meaning of regional cooperation. If in earlier years bilateral economic contacts were often treated as separate transactions, by 2017-2022 they began to be understood as elements of a broader Central Asian economic space. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan increasingly discussed not only bilateral trade, but also regional connectivity, international transit corridors, production cooperation, and access to third-country markets.

5. Trade and economic dynamics

Trade turnover became the most visible indicator of the new stage. According to the source material, turnover reached about 2 billion USD in 2017 and showed a significant increase compared with 2016. The data also indicate that between 2017 and 2019 trade expanded from approximately 1.9 billion USD to 3.34 billion USD. This means that trade turnover grew by about 75.8 percent in only two years. The calculated compound annual growth rate for this period is approximately 32.6 percent, which indicates a rapid intensification of bilateral trade.

The pandemic year of 2020 interrupted this expansion. Turnover decreased from 3.34 billion USD in 2019 to approximately 3.01 billion USD in 2020, a decline of about 9.9 percent. However, this contraction should not be interpreted as a structural weakening of bilateral relations. The decline was connected with the global and regional disruptions caused by the pandemic. The recovery indicators for 2021 show that economic cooperation remained resilient. In the first ten months of 2021, turnover increased by 36.5 percent compared with the same period of 2020, while exports grew by 30.5 percent and imports by 39.3 percent.

The trade structure also shows complementarity. Uzbekistan exported food products, machinery and equipment, chemical goods, metal products, textiles, clothing, services, agricultural goods, and automobiles. Kazakhstan supplied food products, metals, energy resources, petroleum products, machinery, and chemical goods. This structure shows that bilateral trade was not limited to raw materials; there was also potential for increasing trade in finished goods and industrial products.

Figure 1. Trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, 2017-2020. Values are approximate and calculated from the manuscript data

6. Investment cooperation and industrial projects

Investment cooperation became one of the strongest signs of the deepening partnership. The source material states that the number of enterprises with Kazakh capital in Uzbekistan increased from 510 to 1056 after 2019. This represents growth of about 107.1 percent, meaning that the number of such enterprises more than doubled. This indicator is historically important because it shows that cooperation moved beyond trade toward the creation of long-term business presence and production links.

Kazakh capital became active in trade, construction, finance, insurance, information technologies, manufacturing, and services. The operation of Tenge Bank in Tashkent reflected the emergence of financial cooperation. Industrial initiatives involving automotive production, agricultural machinery, household appliances, textile production, and other sectors demonstrated the gradual expansion of production cooperation. At the same time, Uzbek capital also entered Kazakhstan's market, especially in trade, construction, and services.

The historical meaning of this process is that investment created durable economic links. Trade can fluctuate from year to year, but enterprises, factories, banks, service networks, and production partnerships create a more stable institutional foundation. Therefore, the growth of joint enterprises should be interpreted as one of the main indicators of the strategic character of Uzbek-Kazakh cooperation.

7. Interregional and cross-border cooperation

Interregional cooperation was another important feature of the 2017-2022 period. Forums held in Shymkent, Turkistan, and other cities became platforms for signing memoranda, investment agreements, and trade contracts. The source material notes that the 2018 Shymkent forum resulted in 16 memoranda, 26 investment projects worth 110.5 million USD, and 69 trade contracts worth 209.3 million USD. The 2021 Turkistan forum produced 54 investment and commercial agreements worth 611.3 million USD.

Such forums were historically significant because they shifted cooperation from the level of central government declarations to the level of regions, businesses, and local economic actors. Regional administrations, entrepreneurs, industrial zones, agricultural producers, and logistics companies began to participate directly in the development of bilateral relations. This made cooperation more practical and more sustainable.

Border cooperation also gained new importance. The project of the International Center for Trade and Economic Cooperation 'Central Asia' was designed to support trade flows, logistics, warehousing, and cross-border commercial activity. Although the project developed gradually, its strategic meaning was clear: it could become a catalyst for regional trade and a model of practical economic integration in Central Asia.

8. Transport, logistics and the regional corridor factor

Transport and logistics cooperation has special importance because both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are landlocked states. For Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan provides access to northern routes and important Eurasian corridors. For Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan opens opportunities toward southern markets, Afghanistan, Iran, and South Asia. Thus, bilateral transport cooperation has a wider regional dimension.

In historical terms, the development of transport-logistics cooperation can be seen as a modern continuation of the old transregional connectivity of Central Asia. The ancient Silk Road connected cities, markets, and cultures; the modern version is based on railways, highways, logistics centers, customs coordination, and industrial supply chains. In this sense, the economic partnership between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is not only a matter of current trade, but also a historical process of reconnecting regional space.

The role of transport became even more important during and after the pandemic, when resilient supply chains gained strategic value. The ability to maintain trade flows, food supply, industrial inputs, and transit movements became an important element of economic security. This factor strengthened the importance of bilateral coordination in logistics and border infrastructure.

9. Results and discussion

The results of the analysis show that the 2017-2022 period was not a routine continuation of earlier bilateral relations. It was a stage of qualitative transformation. Trade growth was strong before the pandemic; investment links deepened; regional forums became more practical; and logistics cooperation acquired strategic meaning. The calculated indicators confirm this interpretation: trade turnover grew by about 75.8 percent from 2017 to 2019, while the number of enterprises with Kazakh capital in Uzbekistan more than doubled after 2019.

At the same time, the analysis shows that cooperation remained asymmetrical in some respects. Uzbekistan's trade balance with Kazakhstan was negative in 2020, with an estimated deficit of about 1.19 billion USD. Imports from Kazakhstan were more than twice Uzbekistan's exports to Kazakhstan in that year. This does not mean that cooperation was unfavorable; rather, it shows that Uzbekistan still needed to expand exports of higher-value finished products, diversify trade categories, and increase industrial competitiveness.

The discussion also shows that the pandemic acted as a stress test. The decline of 2020 was significant but temporary. The recovery of 2021 demonstrated that economic ties had become resilient. This resilience was supported by political trust, the existence of institutional mechanisms, the practical interests of business communities, and the strategic importance of transport and logistics.

From a historical perspective, the most important result is the emergence of a new pattern of cooperation. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan were no longer simply neighboring trade partners. They were becoming co-architects of a regional economic environment in which trade, investment, industry, agriculture, logistics, and border cooperation supported each other. This is why 2017-2022 can be interpreted as a formative period in the modern economic history of the two states.

10. Conclusion

The history of economic relations between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2017-2022 demonstrates a clear transition from ordinary trade cooperation to a more strategic model of economic interdependence. The renewal of Uzbekistan's regional policy after 2016 created political conditions for a more active partnership. In 2017-2019, trade grew rapidly, and the adoption of cooperation strategies helped institutionalize economic dialogue. Although the pandemic caused a temporary decline in 2020, the recovery of 2021 confirmed the stability of the partnership.

The article shows that the historical significance of this period lies not only in the increase of trade turnover or the number of agreements. Its deeper meaning is the formation of a new regional cooperation culture. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan began to approach economic relations as a long-term system involving trade, investment, industrial cooperation, regional forums, logistics, and cross-border infrastructure. This system contributed to the development of Central Asia as a more connected and economically integrated region.

The study also indicates that the future effectiveness of cooperation will depend on the expansion of high-value exports, the development of joint production chains, the acceleration of logistics projects, and the practical implementation of interregional agreements. If these directions are strengthened, Uzbek-Kazakh economic cooperation will remain one of the main drivers of regional stability and modernization in Central Asia.

Table 1. Analytical results calculated from the manuscript data

Note. The indicators are calculated from the numerical information contained in the manuscript and are used as a descriptive analytical tool, not as a substitute for a full econometric model.

Table 2. Chronology of key historical-economic developments

References:

1. Materials of the manuscript: Tursunov A.A. The history of economic relations of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2017-2022.
2. Official materials on economic cooperation between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Republic of Kazakhstan.
3. Statistical and analytical information on Uzbek-Kazakh trade turnover, investment cooperation and joint enterprises.
4. Materials of Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan interregional cooperation forums in Shymkent, Turkistan and other regional platforms.
5. Documents and analytical materials on Central Asian regional economic integration, transport corridors and border cooperation.
6. Data on sectoral composition of trade between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, including food products, machinery, chemicals, metals, textiles, services and energy resources.
7. Materials concerning the International Center for Trade and Economic Cooperation “Central Asia”.
8. Comparative analytical materials on Uzbekistan’s renewed neighborhood policy and Kazakhstan’s regional economic role in Central Asia.