CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE IMPACT OF FEMALE EMPLOYMENT ON THE HOUSING MARKET IN UZBEKISTAN

ABSTRACT

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state and prospects of the impact of female employment on the housing market in Uzbekistan. The factors determining housing price formation in international practice are considered, including population income, employment, availability of credit resources, spatial and institutional features. The specifics of the impact of female employment on the housing market in international studies are clarified, and the differences of their manifestation in the context of Uzbekistan are identified. Special attention is paid to traditional barriers and gender constraints related to women’s access to property and bank credit. Based on open data, indicators of the labor force, female employment, and housing stock are analyzed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the attempt to integrate socio-economic and gender factors into the explanation of housing price dynamics and housing affordability in the country, using Uzbekistan as a case study. The study concludes that, despite persistent institutional and cultural barriers, the expansion of female employment in the future may become a significant factor in shaping demand and housing affordability in Uzbekistan.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Статья посвящена анализу современного состояния и перспектив влияния женской занятости на рынок жилья в Узбекистане. Рассмотрены факторы, определяющие формирование цен на жилье в мировой практике, среди которых: доходы населения, занятость, доступность кредитных ресурсов, пространственные и институциональные особенности. Уточнена специфика влияния женской занятости на рынок жилья в международных исследованиях и выявлены различия их проявления в контексте Узбекистана. Особое внимание уделено традиционным барьерам и гендерным ограничениям, которые связаны с доступом женщин к собственности и банковским кредитам. На основе открытых данных проанализированы показатели рабочей силы, женской занятости и жилищного фонда. Научная новизна исследования состоит в предпринимаемой попытке объединить социально-экономические и гендерные факторы в объяснении динамики цен на жилье и доступности жилищных ресурсов в стране на примере Узбекистана. По итогам проведенного исследования сделаны выводы о том, что, несмотря на сохраняющиеся институциональные и культурные барьеры, расширение женской занятости в перспективе способно стать значимым фактором формирования спроса и доступности жилья в Узбекистане.

Keywords: female employment; housing market; Uzbekistan; housing prices; gender barriers; mortgage lending; socio-economic factors.

Ключевые слова: женская занятость; рынок жилья; Узбекистан; цены на жильё; гендерные барьеры; ипотечное кредитование; социально-экономические факторы.

Research objective – to characterize the current state, prospects, and the existence of a relationship between female employment and the housing market in Uzbekistan.

Research methodology. The study is based on open materials from international research focused on the socio-economic processes in Uzbekistan. Special attention is given to aggregated statistical data reflecting the current state of the economy, the housing market, as well as the dynamics of female employment in the country. The research methods are based on theoretical analysis, comparative study, generalization, synthesis, formal-logical analysis, and empirical methods for processing statistical data.

Results and discussion. To reveal the prerequisites that make it relevant to consider the issue addressed in the study, it is necessary to refer to statistics reflecting female employment and the housing market in Uzbekistan. Based on open data from the World Bank, female employment in Uzbekistan is shaped by both the potential opportunities and the existing constraints in the country. In 2023, women accounted for 35.5% of the total labor force in the country, which is approximately 10–12% lower than in European and Central Asian countries; at the same time, the total population and labor force in the country are increasing year by year. The workforce amounted to 13.8 million people – 37.95% of the total population in 2024. There is an extremely high demographic burden on the labor market in Uzbekistan [13].

It should be noted that the prerequisite for examining the impact of women on the housing market in the country is the existence of gender segregation; the female population is predominantly employed in the education, healthcare, and social services sectors, i.e., in low-paid and less prestigious occupations in the country. At the same time, the high proportion of rural areas and the prevalence of private households (which accounted for 84.8% in 2022 – see Figure 1) naturally stimulate extremely high female involvement in household work and informal employment. According to CABAR.Asia, under the current circumstances, women’s access to formal employment is limited, and participation in entrepreneurial activities depends on the consent of the husband or the entire family. Another problem in the structure of female employment is wage inequality; in 2020, women’s salaries were on average 37.5% lower than men’s [2].

Additional influence on housing prices and housing affordability for women comes from both the structure of housing types and overall socio-economic data. Although the housing market in Uzbekistan is in a growth phase (largely due to active state policy – from 2016 to 2023, housing construction increased by 76.6%, from 13.3 to 23.5 million sq. m. [5]), the issue of housing affordability persists. GDP per capita in 2024 amounted to USD 3,162, which is significantly below the global average. At the same time, housing price growth outpaces income growth, which is especially pronounced in urban centers. For women, this problem is exacerbated by limited access to financial resources, as only 22.3% of registered property belongs to women [13], and when obtaining loans, women face the requirement to provide collateral in the name of their husband or father [2].

Figure 1. Structure of housing types in Uzbekistan in 2022, compiled by the author based on open data [4]

It should be noted that a feature of the housing structure is the dominance of the private sector – urbanization in Uzbekistan is occurring in such a way that the majority of the population continues to prioritize living in private houses; the basis is the traditional focus on homes for large families, often multi-generational.

Thus, a partially unfavorable situation arises, characterized by the fact that women, in the current circumstances, are more likely to be limited in their opportunities to accumulate capital and invest in housing resources.

Referring to international studies, several groups of factors determining the impact on housing prices and affordability can be identified (Figure 2). For example, it has been noted that a 10% increase in per capita income raises housing prices by 9% in the USA; population income and employment are directly correlated with housing price growth, which amplifies the effect of the “dual household income” (when both husband and wife are employed) [12]. Similarly, although the correlation between female employment and housing prices is positive, the causal relationship has not been proven, since high housing prices do not necessarily encourage women to enter the labor market, and an increase in female employment does not always directly raise prices [6].

Figure 2. Factors influencing housing prices as presented in international practice, compiled by the author based on a comparative analysis of scientific literature [3; 6; 7, etc.]

A classical hypothesis states that housing prices grow faster in cities with limited land supply; however, this assumption is increasingly being challenged. Differences in the “rigidity” of supply do not explain differences in housing price growth between cities (as shown in the USA); in the country, income growth equally leads to both higher prices and increased construction volumes, regardless of geography and regulation [7]. In the capital of Uzbekistan (Tashkent), housing prices are also shaped by location. Proximity to the city center and the metro increases prices, whereas proximity to wastewater treatment facilities, on the contrary, lowers them [10]. Similarly, it has been demonstrated that housing prices depend on the availability of mortgage lending, since in countries with developed financial markets, increased access to credit leads to higher demand and prices. Preferential programs have a special influence, stimulating demand among certain population groups and increasing their participation in the housing market [1; 2, etc.].

In the context of Uzbekistan, many of the conclusions drawn in international studies differ due to the country’s specific characteristics. First of all, it should be noted that women in the country often face difficulties in obtaining loans and property – their participation is directly limited, which automatically affects access to ownership. In addition, in Uzbekistan, the challenges of macroeconomic instability are associated with the limited influence of the private sector on the economy, which also constrains the scenarios and trajectories of housing market development. It should be noted that, to assess prospects in the context of Uzbekistan, several conditions can be taken as a basis:

Considering the realities in Uzbekistan, special attention should be paid to examining the traditions and restrictions on women’s access to housing and financial resources, which is advisable to analyze in the context of several areas (Table 1):

Table 1.

The impact of traditions and restrictions on women’s access to housing and financial resources, compiled by the author based on data [1; 2; 8; 9; 11; 13, etc.]

Conclusion. Thus, in the context of Uzbekistan, the impact of female employment on the housing market remains limited, since women constitute a small share of the labor force, their incomes are significantly lower than those of men, access to financial resources and property remains restricted, and individual housing predominates in the country (with a traditional family structure, often multi-generational families headed by men). At the same time, positive changes have been observed in recent years. The prospects for the influence of female employment on the housing market in Uzbekistan lie in the fact that further expansion of female employment will have a more systemic effect on the housing market – with a 5–10% increase in women’s participation in the economy, an increase in housing demand in urban centers, a higher share of women property owners, and, consequently, accelerated development of the mortgage market and housing construction can be expected. An important condition for realizing these forecasts is the simplification of loan procedures, the promotion of female entrepreneurship, and the improvement of business education.

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