TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GAP BETWEEN POTENTIAL AND UTILIZATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN KAZAKHSTAN

ABSTRACT

This paper quantifies the significant disparity between theoretical renewable energy potential and actual utilization in Kazakhstan through comprehensive technical analysis. Regional assessment of solar radiation and wind resources reveals that current deployment represents merely 0.07% and 0.01% of realistic solar and wind energy potential, respectively. The investigation extends to energy storage technologies essential for renewable integration, encompassing battery systems, pumped storage hydropower plants (PSHP), and green hydrogen production capabilities for long-duration storage applications. Through systematic evaluation, the research identifies critical technical limitations impeding renewable deployment and proposes strategic recommendations for addressing these constraints. The findings provide a technical foundation for energy sector planning that can significantly enhance renewable energy utilization in Kazakhstan's future electrical generation portfolio.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В данной статье на основе всестороннего технического анализа дается количественная оценка существенного несоответствия между теоретическим потенциалом возобновляемых источников энергии и фактическим использованием в Казахстане. Региональная оценка солнечной радиации и ветровых ресурсов показывает, что текущее использование составляет всего 0,07% и 0,01% от реального потенциала солнечной и ветровой энергии, соответственно. Исследование распространяется на технологии хранения энергии, необходимые для интеграции возобновляемых источников, включая аккумуляторные системы, гидроаккумулирующие электростанции (ГАЭС) и возможности производства экологически чистого водорода для долговременного хранения. На основе систематической оценки в исследовании выявляются критические технические ограничения, препятствующие внедрению возобновляемых источников энергии, и предлагаются стратегические рекомендации по устранению этих ограничений. Полученные результаты обеспечивают техническую основу для планирования энергетического сектора, что может значительно повысить эффективность использования возобновляемых источников энергии в будущем секторе производства электроэнергии в Казахстане.

Keywords: energy storage systems, green hydrogen production, Kazakhstan, pumped storage hydropower, renewable energy sources, solar energy potential, technical barriers, wind energy potential.

Ключевые слова: системы накопления энергии, производство экологически чистого водорода, Казахстан, гидроаккумулирующая энергетика, возобновляемые источники энергии, потенциал солнечной энергии, технические барьеры, потенциал энергии ветра.

Introduction

Despite having enough renewable energy resources, Kazakhstan's electricity grid remains dominated by fossil fuels. This can be seen in the nation's existing energy mix that remains dominated by coal-fired thermal power plants to generate approximately 70% of electricity, natural gas plants 15%, hydroelectric plants 8%, and renewables contributing only 7% of the total output. This heavy dependence on conventional energy sources is a direct contradiction of the world's decarbonization and sustainability efforts, and it becomes imperative that Kazakhstan strategically diversify its energy base.

Kazakhstan has a good geographical and climatic situation for the production of renewable energy resources, particularly solar and wind power. Being a big country with an area of 2.7 million km² and low population, the country has sufficient land resources available for the installation of renewable power plants. Nevertheless, utilization of these renewable sources is very limited in comparison to their technical potential. One of the biggest challenges for integrating renewable energy is figuring out how to handle their natural variability. That variability necessitates the concomitant development of energy storage technologies to ensure grid reliability and stability. Careful analysis should therefore extend beyond potential estimation to include evaluation of various storage technologies, including battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage hydropower plants (PSHP), and green hydrogen production units. This project is to attempt to estimate the technical potential of solar and wind energy facilities in Kazakhstan, analyze their current levels of exploitation, and consider energy storage devices for the increased integration of renewables into the grid. This project is posing a fundamental question: What is the magnitude of the technical opportunity-actual utilization gap in the use of renewable energy resources in Kazakhstan, and with what technical actions can this gap practically be closed?

Methodology.

As illustrated in Figure 1, the assessment framework integrates four primary components: data acquisition, solar and wind resource evaluation, energy storage potential analysis, and current utilization assessment.

Figure 1. Integrated methodological framework for renewable energy potential assessment in Kazakhstan

This study utilizes a multi-source, data-driven methodology to assess the renewable energy potential and current utilization across Kazakhstan. The methodology is structured into four core components: (A) solar resource assessment, (B) wind resource assessment, (C) energy storage evaluation, and (D) deployment and utilization analysis.

A. Solar Resource Assessment

Solar energy potential is evaluated using data from the World Bank ESMAP/Solargis Global Solar Atlas for the period 1999–2018. The main parameter analyzed is the photovoltaic output (PVOUT), which estimates the average annual energy yield per kilowatt of installed capacity under local solar irradiation conditions.

To determine realistic solar deployment potential, the following factors are considered:

• Land Use Constraints: Agricultural and environmentally sensitive lands are partially excluded, applying a 40–60% reduction in available land based on regional land-use classifications.
• Grid Proximity: Only locations within a 10 km radius of the national grid infrastructure, as identified through KEGOC data, are deemed feasible for utility-scale installations.
• Installation Density: Ground-mounted photovoltaic installations are assumed to have a practical capacity density of approximately 40–50 megawatts per square kilometer.

B. Wind Resource Assessment

Wind potential is assessed using five JSON datasets containing wind speed distributions, power density values, and frequency metrics. These datasets are analyzed across Kazakhstan’s five major regions, incorporating the following technical assumptions:

• Standard Air Density: Assumed to be 1.225 kg/m³ under normal conditions.
• Capacity Factor: A value of 0.35 is used to reflect realistic turbine output under regional wind profiles.
• Land Availability: Only 5% of Kazakhstan’s total land area is considered suitable for wind energy deployment, accounting for physical, environmental, and land-use constraints.
• Turbine Density: A maximum installation density of 8 megawatts per square kilometer is applied to define spatial limits on turbine placement.

These parameters are used to estimate feasible installed capacity and regional production levels across the country.

C. Energy Storage Evaluation

The integration of variable renewable energy sources necessitates robust storage solutions. The assessment includes three principal technologies:

1. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS): These systems are designed to support 20–40% of the total renewable generation capacity with discharge durations ranging between 4 and 12 hours. Round-trip efficiency is typically 85–90%.
2. Pumped Hydroelectric Storage (PHS): Potential PHS sites are identified through topographic and hydrological surveys, focusing on areas with elevation differences greater than 300 meters. Estimated system efficiency ranges from 70% to 80%.
3. Hydrogen Storage: Hydrogen is considered as a long-duration storage solution. Key parameters include an energy content of 50–55 kWh per kilogram of hydrogen and an overall system efficiency of 30% to 40% from electricity to electricity.

D. Deployment and Utilization Analysis

Data on existing renewable energy infrastructure is sourced from the Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy and KEGOC. Regional summaries of installed solar and wind capacities are compiled to evaluate current levels of deployment. Utilization ratios are calculated by comparing installed capacity against the assessed technical potential, offering insight into the degree of underutilization across different regions.

Results

Kazakhstan possesses significant renewable energy resources, with considerable untapped potential in solar, wind, and energy storage systems. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical potential and current utilization levels of these resources, highlighting regional disparities and infrastructure gaps.

Solar Energy Potential

The technical potential for solar energy in Kazakhstan is substantial, with an estimated realistic capacity of 1,670.9 GW and an annual generation potential of 891.4 TWh. Photovoltaic output (PVOUT) varies across the country, ranging from 1,200 kWh/kWp/year in North Kazakhstan to 1,680 kWh/kWp/year in the Turkestan region.

Figure. 2 illustrates the spatial distribution, accounting for land availability and grid accessibility

Kazakhstan’s wind resources also exhibit exceptional technical potential, with a realistic generation capacity of 24.85 million MW at a 35% capacity factor. The national mean wind speed is 7.95 m/s, and the average power density is 521.10 W/m². Fig. 3 shows the regional variation in wind energy potential.

Figure 3.Wind Power Potential by Region in Kazakhstan

If only 5% of suitable land were utilized with modern wind turbine technology, it would yield an installable capacity of 139.2 GW, representing a nearly 99-fold increase over the current installed capacity (Fig. 4).

Figure 4.Kazakhstan Wind Energy Potential (Log Scale) Energy Storage Potential

To ensure effective integration of renewable energy into the grid, robust energy storage solutions are critical.

For a scenario involving 10% of the assessed renewable potential (167 GW solar and 2.4 million MW wind), optimal battery energy storage requirements range from 50–80 GW in power and 200–640 GWh in energy capacity. Figure 5  presents the technical specifications and deployment potential for various battery technologies.

Figure 5. Battery Storage System Potential by Technology

Pumped storage hydropower (PSHP) also shows promise, with a total estimated capacity of 4–6 GW and energy storage potential of 50–100 GWh. Priority development regions include East Kazakhstan, Zhetysu, and Zhambyl, with technical details outlined in Figure 6 .

Figure 6. Potential Pumped Storage Hydropower Sites

Green hydrogen, derived from 20% of renewable generation (approximately 178 TWh), could yield up to 3.2 million tons of hydrogen annually—equivalent to 128 TWh of energy based on a calorific value of 33.3 kWh/kg. However, with a round-trip conversion efficiency of 30–40%, only a fraction would be usable for grid integration. Figure 7. outlines the regional hydrogen production potential.

Figure 7. Regional Green Hydrogen Production Potential Current Utilization and Technical Gap

As of 2024, Kazakhstan has an installed solar capacity of 1,171.2 MW, predominantly located in Turkestan (298.7 MW), Zhambyl (250.5 MW), and Karaganda (216.0 MW). Wind installations total 1,409.55 MW, with an average turbine size of 4.77 MW.

Despite favorable geographic and technical conditions, energy storage infrastructure remains underdeveloped. Battery storage installations are limited to pilot projects totaling less than 10 MW, and no PSHP facilities have been commissioned to date.

A comparative analysis reveals significant underutilization:

• Solar: 0.07% of technical potential deployed
• Wind: 0.01% of technical potential deployed
• Energy Storage: Near-zero deployment

Moreover, regional disparities are evident. Several high-potential regions—such as Aktobe, Kostanay, and West Kazakhstan—currently have no operational renewable energy projects, while others exhibit modest development.

Conclusion. The conducted technical analysis of the gap between potential and utilization of renewable energy sources in Kazakhstan revealed significant untapped opportunities. With a realistic potential of solar energy at 1,670.9 GW and wind energy at 24.8 million MW, current utilization is only fractions of a percent. This indicates an enormous potential for the development of the renewable energy sector in the country. The main technical factors determining this gap include grid infrastructure limitations, power system stability problems, the absence of energy storage systems, and insufficient development of technological potential. For effective gap reduction, a comprehensive approach is needed, including grid infrastructure modernization, phased development of energy storage systems, increasing power system flexibility, and developing technological potential. Special attention should be paid to the development of energy storage systems, including battery systems, PSPPs, and hydrogen technologies, which can play a key role in integrating a high share of variable renewable energy into Kazakhstan's power system. Realization of even a small part of the technical potential of renewable energy can significantly change the country's energy balance and make a significant contribution to achieving decarbonization goals. The results of this study can serve as a basis for developing a technical strategy for the renewable energy sector in Kazakhstan, taking into account regional features and system requirements. Reducing the identified gap will not only improve the environmental performance of the energy sector but also create a foundation for the country's long-term energy sustainability.

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