PASSENGER FLOW ANALYSIS AND INFLUENCE FACTORS (IN CASE OF NAMANGAN CITY)

ABSTRACT

The determination of passenger traffic on the public transport routes of the city of Namangan and its suburbs, the analysis of factors affecting passenger traffic, the reliability and calculation of indicators of the quality of transport work on other indicators was carried out.

АННОТAЦИЯ

Проведено определение пассажиропотока на маршрутах общественного транспорта города Намангана и пригородов, анализ факторов, влияющих на пассажиропоток, достоверность и расчет показателей качества работы транспорта по другим показателям.

Keywords: route, passenger, traffic, segment, traffic intensity, capacity, passenger flow, traffic interval, city, model, speed, traffic regularity.

Ключевые слова: маршрут, пассажир, трафик, сегмент, интенсивность движения, пропускная способность, пассажиропоток, интервал движения, город, модель, скорость, регулярность движения.

Introduction. The analysis of world experience shows that the provision of transport links in suburban agglomerations in developed foreign countries is part of the state's social policy, the state exercises various levels of control, carries out the introduction and financing of carriers into the transport market. Since suburban transport is most developed in urban agglomerations and Megapolis cities, regional authorities and transport authorities are actively involved in the organization of the transportation process, in particular: they make orders for transportation in accordance with the volumes set by them, organize or participate in the organization of competitive procedures. For the right to fulfill the specified volume of passenger transport, an increase in the quality of transport services is dictated by the control of the level of satisfaction of passengers with the services provided.

The level of development of the transport system affects almost all spheres of society's life: economic, social, political, demographic, environmental, etc., therefore, it is possible to distinguish only conditionally the economic and social functions carried out by this system. An important state task in the field of development and improvement of passenger transport is to create conditions for increasing the mobility and territorial mobility of the population (the intensity of actions not associated with changing the place of residence). The regular movement of the population to work, study and recreation areas leads to the formation of urban agglomerations and determines the development of their development directions, including traffic sets [1-5].

The development of the transport complex and the formation of the transport system of urban agglomeration are influenced by a number of external and internal factors in relation to the transport complex. External factors are not influenced by the transport system, or their interaction is quite indirect - this is the economic situation, political situation, climatic conditions, socio-demographic development, etc. Internal factors include the elements of the transport complex and their characteristics. Any transport complement is determined by three main components: infrastructure, rolling stock and technology.

One of the main signs of the formed urban agglomeration is the presence of stable mass passenger flows caused by the daily movement of residents to work, study and recreation areas. In this regard, the issue of studying passenger flows is decisive when looking for ways to form a stable transport system that will help develop an urban agglomeration [2-3].

Suburban passenger companies indicate that the volume of suburban passenger traffic of an urban agglomeration consists of expanded groups of the following segments: shift workers, office workers, students (students and schoolchildren), other passengers.

The complexity of studying passenger flows and their direction of travel is that passenger flows are formed on existing routes. Potential passengers independently assess the possibilities of different types of transport, available routes, tariffs, schedules, convenience and other parameters of the upcoming trip, compare them with their needs and choose the method of Transportation (Figure 1). Particular attention in the formation of the transport system requires routes that are not alternative, that is, the choice of the passenger (there is only one way to travel). Insufficient transport service on such routes can lead to a complete abandonment of travel, change of residence and serious socio-economic changes in the settlement.

Figure 1. Comparison of passenger needs and transportation options by the routes under consideration [3]

Hence, the formation of the flow of passengers and their distribution between routes and types of transport are influenced by both factors arising from the passenger himself and those that are not related or partially related to him. The more parameters of the proposed trip coincide with the passenger's expectations, the more likely it is to choose this method of travel along the direction in question.

Currently, the transport of urban agglomerations is represented by suburban public transport, as well as personal vehicles, which provide a connection between the types of urban public transport that are part of the agglomeration of municipalities.

From the point of view of agglomeration, the transport systems of individual municipalities are divided into: main cities and adjacent cities.

To ensure the stability of the system, it must have resistance to external factors, that is, self-preservation. We can say that now partial self-service is carried out by the passenger himself, who seeks to reach his destination in any way (he chooses one or another type of transport, goes to a personal car, orders a taxi, goes to the subway, etc.). In recent years, the presence of self-repair can also be noted in the transport systems of large cities (bus routes are introduced instead of providing transport services when repairing  Metro plots). The transport system of each municipality is controlled by local transport administrations and authorities. In addition, Inter-agglomeration transport links are not provided by one type of transport, but by at least two: railways and highways [4-6].

Urban public transport is used to deliver passengers later to travel around the city (or to the bus station). Traffic around the city, in turn, has other work rhythms. It is necessary to establish such a balance and find parameters that ensure the integrity of the agglomeration passenger transport system and its active self-sufficiency.

Buses of various models and capacities can be used to transport passengers. However, if the nominal capacity does not match the actual passenger density on the route, the efficiency of their use will not be the same. The use of small capacity buses with a large volume of passenger traffic increases the number of vehicles required, increases the load on the streets and the need for drivers. The use of large capacity buses on routes with low capacity passenger flow leads to significant bus movement intervals and excessive passenger waiting time.

A scientifically based design of urban and suburban transport networks provides for the identification of expected passenger flows, which in turn requires determining the character of the population in terms of frequency and direction of movement. Thus, the main task is to calculate the number of movements of the city's population.

suburban passenger service quality it is necessary to study the problematic areas of passenger service on quality indicators, determine the priority indicators of the quality of passenger service and develop recommendations for improving each of them, develop a set of measures for improvement.

Including when we see suburban bus routes entering Namangan from districts, it is up to the city to establish (build) head stops to the gods of entry.

Figure 2. Location of suburban bus routes

It is necessary to indicate the characteristics of the types of passenger flow inspection. Passenger traffic is the number of passengers moving in a particular direction at a given time interval. The study of passenger flow can be determined in the form of tables and diagrams. For urban and suburban routes, the change in the flow of passengers by the hours of the day and the Route sections at peak hours are indicated. Based on the results of the study of passenger transportation on routes, the following data are determined: average travel distance; filling of buses on the route; changes in the volume of passenger traffic by hours of the day and Route sections; the number of passengers transported and the turnover of passengers carried out.

Table 1.

Information about one-day passengers transported on suburban routes in public transport

Factors affecting passenger flow [2-5]:

1-taxing routes with high passenger flow to change mutonosib with the capacity of road networks. Solving the problem of congestion on regional road networks consists in choosing methods that allow you to regulate traffic demand, affect its size and structure.

To make the most of the available capabilities of the 2nd District and territorial road networks.

3 - the complexity of the adopted decisions means the Coordination of activities in the field of road management with activities in the field of urban planning, road construction, development of passenger transport in general use.

4-continuity of planning, control over the implementation of plans and their correction.

World experience shows that these principles can be implemented in the following ways:

• improving existing traffic patterns and traffic control methods in existing road networks. This route is carried out using traditional means of organizing traffic (for example, the installation of road signs, marking the road line, installing traffic lights, introducing one-way traffic, etc.;
• the introduction of direct and indirect restrictions on the use of the road network of certain types of vehicles (restrictions on parking in areas where the road network is overloaded, permanent or temporary prohibitions on entry, paid access and parking);
• information supply to traffic participants through specialized radio channels, internet services, cellular communications, etc. (informing drivers about the state of the road network, optimal route, traffic accidents, etc.);
• development of public passenger transport as the main and often only competitor of a personal car (opening new routes, mutual exchange and construction of passenger terminals, prioritizing surface public transport in road traffic, progressive tariff policy, development of new types of off-street transport, etc.);
• taking into account the transport component in urban planning activities (lowering the level of demand for transport by urban planning, ensuring balanced transport and socio-economic development of the territory, etc.).

Figure 3. Factors affecting passenger flow

One of the largest traffic jams in large cities, where Namangan is developing, is the traffic jams of motor vehicles, which moammo has been taking measures to look for a solution in different ways for a long time. There is also a search for solutions for the construction of additional highways, the opening of existing blocked roads, the introduction of new types of vehicles (for example, metro, traleybus) into practice, the redistribution of traffic flows [1].

The formation of passenger flow occurs under the complex influence of various factors, the degree of their influence is not the same. Various economic and mathematical methods are used to determine the degree of influence of individual factors on passenger transport and their combination. It is essentially the main means of substantiating long-term plans, and the correctness of predictions determines the accuracy of the planned decisions being made [7-17].

Figure 4. The border of Namangan city

When developing a plan for the development of passenger transport, the following main stages are distinguished:

• analysis of the dynamics of the transportation process being planned and determination of trends in its development;
• the most important thing is transportation based on the characteristics of the planned process trends;
• drawing up a passenger transport plan;
• calculation of the plan error.

Based on the features of long-term planning and forecasting on the basis of systematic approaches to solving specific problems of passenger transport, the implementation of a systematic approach assumes the need to create a set of models. This is divided into models and deterministic models used to solve passenger traffic problems, which are treated as a one-sense function of motion determining factors (gravitational, electrostatic analogy, etc.; according to statistical patterns (multi-correlation models, simulations, etc.) and heuristic (using time series methods, growth factors, odd set theory), Probability is performed taking into account actions in the form of subordinate statistical quantities. The advantage of these models is their appearance, Research character. The main disadvantage of mathematical modeling in general is that it makes it possible to simplify economic processes [1-5].

Correlation modeling is best suited for creating multifactor models for the formation of passenger flow.

Correlation refers to a relationship in which one value of one event corresponds to a set of values of another event.

The purpose of correlation analysis is to study the closeness of relationships between phenomena. Analysis of The Shape of the relationship between events is checked using regression analysis. The results of Regression analysis will have a quantitative expression in the equations and regression coefficients. Before correlation and regression analysis, a comprehensive theoretical analysis (factor analysis) of the possibilities of correlation between the phenomena under study is carried out.

Factor analysis is a method of extracting hypothetical factors from a set of variables.

The selection of factors is carried out in two stages.

At the first stage (qualitative analysis), factors are selected that are qualitatively related to the problem under study and whose numerical values can be collected or determined.

In the second stage (quantitative analysis), factors are selected that have a significant impact on the efficiency indicator. In the second stage of analysis, already in the first stage, only the most important ones are selected from them in logical analysis in order to facilitate the selection of important factors. Factor analysis typically uses standardized variables. To do this, it is done on all variables (y, z):

the following conditions:

that is, all means of standardized variables for the input data matrix are zero, while the dispersion is one.

The correlation coefficient between variables is defined as:

After the construction of mathematical models, they are evaluated. The use of models for assessing the criteria of Mathematical Statistics, as a rule, is based on certain probability assumptions that need to be additionally checked. Therefore, preference is given to non-parametric criteria. Such criteria include: sum of quadratic deviations, standard deviation, correlation coefficient, relative linear deviation coefficient, Durbin-Watson criterion, etc. Using these criteria, the properties of the random component are studied, the specific shape of the models is selected.

For practical applications, it is important that the predicted data matches the actual data. The most common criterion for assessing the relationship between the resulting models and experimental data is the Fisher criterion and correlation ratio.

Application of the correlation relation

In conclusion, the correspondence of the mathematical model to experimental data is boholized as a clear criterion, since it characterizes the rigidity of the relationship between y and x. Moreover, the empirical values of the correlation ratio do not depend on the order of the function. However, the distribution of the correlation ratio is still not well studied and there are no strict statistical criteria to verify its significance.

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