ASSESSMENT OF THE DECISION-MAKING IN JUSTIFICATION OF STRENGTHENING THE CAPACITY OF RAILWAYS IN UZBEKISTAN UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISKS

ABSTRACT

As a result of the evaluation of the work, types of uncertainty and risk factors were identified when justifying the increase in the capacity of the railways of Uzbekistan, which affect the choice of the design decision being made. After the types of uncertainty and risk classification are identified, it is necessary to determine the decision-making methods when justifying the increase in the capacity of railways, consider their advantages and disadvantages.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В результате оценки работ были выявлены виды неопределенности и факторы риска при обосновании усиления мощности железных дорог Узбекистана, оказывающие влияние на выбор принимаемого проектного решения. После того, как выявлены виды неопределенности и классификации рисков, нужно определить методы принятия решения при обосновании усиления мощности железных дорог, рассмотреть их достоинства и недостатки.

Keywords: risk, uncertainty, strengthening the capacity of railways, Angren – Pap

Ключевые слова: риск, неопределенности, усиления мощности железных дорог, Ангрен – Пап

Risk factors and uncertainties in justifying the increase in the capacity of the operated railways of Uzbekistan are currently not taken into account as indicators that require special attention.

Let us turn to the schedule of transportation mastering (Fig. 1) [2-3]

Figure 1. Graph of transportation mastering in each calculation case

Finding the best way to increase the capacity of the railways of Uzbekistan in order to switch transit cargo flows between China, Central and South Asia is a difficult task, which is due, on the one hand, to the uncertainty of the time for switching transit cargo flows, and on the other hand, the reliability of the initial information on the size of transit cargo flows between China, Central and South Asia.

As can be seen from the graph, when choosing the variant of the scheme for mastering the transportation of the Angren-Pap railway line, a rather long period (15 years) of operation of the line is considered, while, obviously, deviations in traffic volumes are possible, both in time intervals and in general over the horizon calculation (this depends on many factors independent of each other).

The prospect of developing the existing Angren-Pap line as a link between China, Central and South Asia may not provide large transit cargo flows between China, Central and South Asia, since there are bottlenecks on this railway line that significantly reduce throughput and carrying capacity, which need to be subjected to an increase in the capacity of the line when switching transit cargo flows between China, Central and South Asia. The same can be said about the schemes of options for strengthening the operated railway line Angren - Pap, i.e. there are conditions of uncertainty. Obviously, the longer the calculation horizon, the higher the level of uncertainty and risk when adopting a particular scheme based on the results of an economic assessment of the effectiveness of investments [1].

Before proceeding to consider the issue of making a decision when justifying the strengthening of the capacity of the Angren-Pap railway projects under conditions of uncertainty and risks, we will formulate the concepts of "uncertainty" and "risk" themselves, and establish the differences between them.

Uncertainty implies the presence in the information block of factors for which it is impossible to give deterministic (single-valued) values, i.e. information is incomplete or inaccurate. In our case, such factors include, for example, information about the volume of traffic or the size of traffic in the future, which depend on the formation of a corridor between China and Central and South Asia.

Uncertainty factors can be divided according to their genetics into external and internal. External factors include information, for example, on the size and structure of transportation, which depend on the country's macroeconomic development programs, the legal framework, the actions of competitors in the transport services market, etc.

Internal - this is, first of all, the competence of the apparatus of managers of the railway company when choosing a strategy for its functioning, and here, in our opinion, it is important to involve science and educational institutions in solving this problem.

There are various methods for determining the volume of traffic and the size of traffic for the estimated time and perspective, showing that uncertainty cannot be interpreted as a complete lack of information, but only about its incompleteness and inaccuracy. Hence the conclusion: - the available information must be used as "conditionally accurate" when assessing the options for the program to increase the capacity of the operated railway Angren - Pap. If new information is received in the process of project implementation, then, obviously, it is necessary to correct the course (process, technology, scheme) of implementation.

The risk should be understood as the probability of occurrence of such conditions that lead to negative consequences in the course of implementing decisions to increase the capacity of the operated Angren-Pap railways or its individual elements.

In the process of strengthening the capacity of the operated railways in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia, the Uzbek railways are faced with a combination of various types of risk that differ in place and time of occurrence, a combination of external and internal factors affecting their level and, consequently, according to the method of their analysis and methods of description.

Risk classification consists in systematizing a large number of risks according to certain characteristics and criteria, which will make it possible to combine a subset of risks into more general concepts. The classification of risks, which is recommended for evaluating investment projects, is shown in fig. 2. In addition, a brief description of each type of risk is given, taking into account the particular justification for increasing the capacity of Uzbekistan's railways in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia.

Figure 2. Classification of project risks

The systematic risks include, first of all, the risks of force majeure (Fig. 3), where the first place is the risk of impact on the progress of the project and its (object) functioning during the life cycle of natural disasters (earthquakes, avalanches, mudflows). , landslides, etc.) [4-5].

It should be noted that the territory of Central Asia is located in a seismically dangerous zone. The project of an international corridor between China and Central and South Asia is envisaged in a complex mountainous area, which is a seismic hazard zone. In winter, there will be periodic threats of avalanches, mudflows and landslides in the area of the international corridor between China and Central and South Asia.

Figure 3. Systematic risks

If we talk about country risk (Figure 3), then here we are talking, first of all, about the political and economic stability of the country, the size of its participation in foreign economic relations. Country risk can be divided into political (Figure 4) and economic (Figure 5). Political risks of direct losses and losses or shortfalls in profits arise due to adverse changes in the political situation in the state or the actions of local authorities. Vivid examples of the manifestation of country risk are the events that occurred in some countries in 2010-11. (eg Libya, Syria, Sudan, etc.) and current events (Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, etc.).

Figure 4. Possible political risks

The successful development of the project to strengthen the capacity of Uzbekistan's railways in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia largely depends on a stable political and economic situation in the region. The instability of the situation in Central Asia will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of decisions made. As previously noted, the construction of a new railway line through Afghanistan has continued, which will provide Central Asia with access to the seaports of Iran and Pakistan on the coast of the Indian Ocean. However, today it comes up against the unresolved situation in Afghanistan.

Figure 5. Possible economic risks

Economic risks are caused by unfavorable changes in the economies of countries. When choosing design parameters for increasing the capacity of the operated railways of Uzbekistan in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia, the following types of uncertainty and economic risks seem to be the most significant:

- lack of the state budget and own funds of the Uzbek railways to increase the capacity of the railways;

- a decrease in the volume of cargo traffic due to the fall of the state economy and the economic crisis in the region;

- the need for additional investments in the infrastructure and rolling stock of railways due to their quality service;

- lack of capacity and low technical level of development of the locomotive and car fleet;

- lack of infrastructure development (warehouses, terminals, etc.);

- reduction of transit cargo flows due to the development of alternative railway routes bypassing the territory of Uzbekistan;

- high level of inflation;

- lack of conversion for foreign investors.

At the same time, there are “bottlenecks” on the railway network of the Republic of Uzbekistan that significantly reduce the throughput and carrying capacity and require significant modernization. The most important work in this direction is to reduce the depreciation of fixed assets, and for rolling stock (diesel locomotives - 76%; freight electric locomotives - 30.8%; freight cars - 70%; passenger cars - 49.1%) and track facilities (railway tracks – 33%), this figure is much higher.

It is important to note that the absence of an intergovernmental agreement on the permanent operation of Uzbekistan's railways will become a serious obstacle to the implementation of plans to increase the capacity of Uzbekistan's railways in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia. The intergovernmental agreement on the permanent operation of Uzbekistan's railways should become a supporting legal document, creating the basis for the implementation of draft plans to strengthen the capacity of Uzbekistan's railways in order to switch transit cargo between China and Central and South Asia, as well as the second stage of development of the country's railway network.

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