UZBEKISTAN'S NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY STRATEGY: INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, FAO ALIGNMENT, MONITORING EFFECTIVENESS, AND GLOBAL TRENDS

ABSTRACT

This article conducts a scientifically grounded analysis of Uzbekistan's National Food Security (NFS) Strategy, focusing on its recent shift from a state-centric model to a market-oriented, resilient food system. It examines the nature and impact of deep institutional reforms, particularly the de-monopolization of the sector and land tenure changes, and evaluates the strategy’s alignment with FAO's four pillars (Availability, Access, Utilization, Stability) and relevant international guidelines. Crucially, the paper assesses the operational effectiveness of the National Monitoring System (NMS), using metrics like the food import coverage ratio (K) to highlight vulnerabilities—such as structural monitoring deficiencies and exposure to global supply chain volatility. The findings position the Strategy within global agri-food trends (climate change, post-harvest loss reduction, green agenda) and argue that long-term success requires sustained institutional momentum and the integration of advanced, evidence-based governance, especially regarding M&E and resilience-building measures.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Данная статья представляет научно обоснованный анализ Национальной стратегии продовольственной безопасности (НСПБ) Узбекистана, фокусируясь на недавнем переходе от государственно-центричной модели к рыночно-ориентированной, устойчивой продовольственной системе. Рассматривается характер и влияние глубоких институциональных реформ, в частности, демонополизации сектора и изменений в земельных отношениях. Проводится оценка соответствия стратегии четырем компонентам ФАО (наличие, доступ, использование, стабильность) и соответствующим международным руководящим принципам. Ключевым является анализ операционной эффективности Национальной системы мониторинга (НСМ) с использованием таких показателей, как коэффициент покрытия продовольственного импорта (K), для выявления уязвимостей, включая структурные недостатки мониторинга и подверженность глобальной волатильности цепочек поставок. Полученные результаты позиционируют Стратегию в контексте глобальных агропродовольственных тенденций (изменение климата, сокращение послеуборочных потерь, «зеленая» повестка) и утверждают, что долгосрочный успех требует устойчивости институционального импульса и интеграции передового, основанного на фактических данных управления, особенно в отношении мер по мониторингу, оценке и повышению устойчивости.

Keywords: Uzbekistan, Food Security, Institutional Reforms, FAO Standards, National Monitoring System, Global Trends, Agricultural Policy, Resilience, Land Tenure, Agri-Food System.

Ключевые слова: Узбекистан, Продовольственная безопасность, Институциональные реформы, Стандарты ФАО, Национальная система мониторинга, Глобальные тенденции, Аграрная политика, Устойчивость, Земельные отношения, Агропродовольственная система.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has consistently framed food security as an issue of national resilience, directly connecting population dynamics and resource scarcity to the need for scientific innovation and efficiency. A core, scientifically based quote that encapsulates this strategic priority is:

“In the current conditions of rapid population growth, where the population of our country increases by almost 1 million people annually, and with limited land and water resources, ensuring the stability of the domestic market can only be achieved through a rational, science-based approach and sharp increase in productivity.”

Figure 1. Results

Uzbekistan's strategic shift, particularly since the adoption of the Strategy for the Development of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020-2030, moves beyond traditional state-centric, self-sufficiency models toward a market-oriented, resilient food system. The core of the institutional reform lies in decreasing direct state involvement in sector management, fostering a favorable agribusiness environment, and establishing transparent land and water relations. Key measures include

the ongoing revision of the Land Code, with technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), to strengthen land tenure security and develop a market for land use rights.¹

This legislative transformation is crucial for unlocking private investment and fostering sustainable land management, directly addressing the country's historic reliance on centralized land governance.²

Figure 2. Results

The alignment of the national strategy with international benchmarks is evident in the adoption of the FAO's four pillars of Food Security: Availability, Access, Utilization, and Stability. Specific reforms, such as the strengthening of the food safety control system through collaboration with FAO and the advancement of a new Food Law, directly harmonize national legislation with international standards, including the Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests in the Context of National Food Security.³

 This commitment not only protects consumer health and promotes balanced nutrition but also enhances the competitiveness of Uzbekistan's agricultural exports in the global marketplace, a critical component of economic stability.

Assessing the effectiveness of the National Monitoring System (NMS) reveals a dynamic, albeit still evolving, mechanism. The NMS utilizes indicators encompassing both physical and economic accessibility of food, going beyond mere production

 volume.⁴ While data confirms substantial growth in the production of staple foods—with a significant increase in cereals, vegetables, and livestock products—challenges remain. The analysis of the food import coverage ratio (K), a key metric for physical availability, shows that while initially at an acceptable level, it has experienced a decline in recent years, pushing the physical availability of food toward the "low" level. This underscores a vulnerability to global market volatility and domestic demand pressure, which is compounded by rapid population growth. Furthermore, structural monitoring challenges, such as insufficient technical capacity for strategic monitoring and evaluation (M&E) within some government institutions and the historical issue of centralized, siloed policy-making, necessitate continuous improvement in evidence-based governance. The introduction of drone-based monitoring for efficient land use is a notable innovation, but comprehensive, integrated M&E remains an area for reinforcement.

Table 1.  

Dynamics of key food indicators in Uzbekistan (2018–2023)

Between 2018 and 2023, Uzbekistan’s food production index increased steadily from 100 to 160, reflecting a 60% growth over five years. This growth indicates successful agricultural development, investment in production technologies, and expansion of agro-processing clusters.

The import coverage coefficient (K) decreased from 0.85 in 2018 to 0.72 in 2023. Econometrically, this suggests that although domestic production increased, the share of domestic supply relative to imports has slightly weakened, signaling potential rising import reliance for certain food categories.

The rapid increase in 2022–2023 is linked to both yield improvements and expanded export capacities. The negative correlation between food production index and import coverage coefficient (approximately -0.95) demonstrates that as domestic production grows, the proportion of imports in total food consumption tends to decrease. However, the declining K also warns policymakers to monitor the structural composition of domestic production and imports.

Sustaining high production growth while reducing import reliance requires strategic investments in:

• Advanced storage and logistics to mitigate pandemic-like disruptions.
• Crop diversification and high-value production to maintain food security.
• Trade policies that balance export promotion with domestic supply stabilization.

A simple linear regression of K on the food production index (2018=100) yields a negative slope, indicating an inverse relationship between domestic production growth and import dependency. This relationship can inform medium-term forecasts for import planning and food security risk assessment.

In the face of global trends—including climate change-induced water scarcity, land degradation, and persistent supply chain shocks—Uzbekistan’s strategy must embed greater resilience.

The commitment to promoting Nature-based Solutions (NbS), such as agroecological and regenerative practices, often supported by international partnerships, aligns with global efforts to mitigate environmental impact while securing food systems.⁵

The focus on diversification of production, development of agro-logistics centers, and promotion of cluster models are direct responses to the global call for shorter, more resilient value chains and reduced post-harvest losses, which historically have been significant (up to 25-30% for fruits and vegetables).

The government’s targeted fiscal measures, such as the introduction of a zero-rate Value Added Tax (VAT) for many agricultural producers, are designed to formalize the economy, increase farm profitability, and boost investment, thereby addressing the issue of low productivity and technological lag that hinders competitive positioning against global players.⁶

Ultimately, the successful long-term implementation of the Uzbekistan NFS Strategy hinges on its ability to transcend administrative inertia, fully operationalize its data-driven NMS, and sustain the momentum of institutional reforms that anchor its goals firmly within global best practices for sustainable and resilient food systems.

The analysis of Uzbekistan’s key food indicators over the period 2018–2023 reveals a sustained and remarkable growth in domestic food production, accompanied by gradual changes in import dependency.

The Food Production Index increased from 100 in 2018 to 160 in 2023, demonstrating a 60% rise within five years.

 This growth reflects the positive impact of national agricultural policies, investments in modern production technologies, and the expansion of processing clusters, which collectively enhance the country’s capacity to meet domestic food demand and strengthen its export potential.

Simultaneously, the import coverage coefficient decreased from 0.85 to 0.72, indicating that while domestic production has expanded, certain sectors remain reliant on imports. Econometric analysis confirms a strong negative correlation between the food production index and import dependency, highlighting the importance of structural balance in production and trade.

This trend underscores the necessity for strategic interventions to ensure sustainable food security, mitigate risks of over-reliance on imports, and optimize resource allocation.

From a policy and practical perspective, several recommendations emerge. First, investment in advanced storage, logistics, and distribution systems is essential to safeguard against potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the pandemic. Second, diversification of crop production and promotion of high-value agricultural products can enhance resilience and reduce external dependency.

Third, harmonized trade policies that balance export promotion with domestic supply stabilization are crucial to maintain long-term food security.

In conclusion, Uzbekistan’s food system has demonstrated impressive resilience and growth, yet careful monitoring and proactive management are required to maintain sustainability.

Continued focus on technological innovation, structural diversification, and strategic policymaking will not only reduce import dependence but also strengthen the nation’s position in regional and global food markets. Implementing these measures will provide a robust framework for achieving long-term food security, supporting sustainable economic development, and fostering self-reliance in the agricultural sector.

In synthesizing the analysis of Uzbekistan's National Food Security Strategy, it becomes evident that the country is navigating a critical juncture in its agricultural and food system development. The strategic pivot from a state-centric model to a market-oriented, resilient framework represents a profound institutional transformation, aimed at addressing both historical legacies and contemporary global challenges.

The success of this transition, however, is not guaranteed by reform decrees alone. It is contingent upon the depth and durability of institutional change—particularly in land tenure security and the de-monopolization of the sector—which are fundamental to unlocking private investment and innovation. While alignment with FAO's pillars and international guidelines provides a robust normative framework, the operationalization of these principles through effective governance remains a work in progress.

The National Monitoring System (NMS) stands as a testament to this evolving governance, yet its revealed vulnerabilities, exemplified by the declining food import coverage ratio, signal persistent risks. These risks stem from structural monitoring gaps, exposure to global volatility, and the relentless pressure of domestic demographic growth. Therefore, the strategy's long-term efficacy hinges on transcending these limitations by fully embedding advanced, evidence-based monitoring and evaluation (M&E) into the policy cycle. This includes leveraging technological innovations, like drone monitoring, and building human capacity for strategic analysis.

Furthermore, the strategy’s relevance must be continually tested against accelerating global trends: climate change impacts on scarce water resources, the imperative to reduce post-harvest losses, and the integration of a green agenda through Nature-based Solutions. The promotion of diversified production, agile value chains, and supportive fiscal policies are positive steps toward building systemic resilience.

Ultimately, Uzbekistan's journey toward food security is a continuous process of adaptation and learning. Sustaining the reform momentum, closing the implementation gaps in the monitoring framework, and rigorously integrating resilience-building measures into every pillar of the strategy are not just recommendations but necessities. By doing so, Uzbekistan can solidify its transition, ensuring that its food system is not only productive and market-integrated but also equitable, sustainable, and capable of withstanding the shocks of an uncertain global future.

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