PROSPECTS OF GREEN FACTOR OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

ABSTRACT

This article explores the pressing environmental challenges currently confronting the Republic of Uzbekistan. It provides an in-depth examination of the concept of the green economy, outlining its foundational principles and strategic development priorities. Furthermore, the paper presents the key stages involved in evaluating the effectiveness of implementing an environmentally focused economic model and highlights the main indicators used to assess its performance within the framework of sustainable development.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В данной статье анализируются актуальные экологические вызовы, с которыми сталкивается Республика Узбекистан на современном этапе. Особое внимание уделяется сущности и структуре концепции «зеленой» экономики, раскрываются её базовые принципы и приоритетные направления развития. Также рассматриваются ключевые этапы анализа результативности внедрения экологически ориентированной модели экономики и приводятся основные индикаторы, отражающие её эффективность в условиях устойчивого развития.

Keywords: ecological sustainability, green economy principles, natural environment, environmental challenges, green investments, barriers to economic growth, waste management, development efficiency.

Ключевые слова: экологическая устойчивость, принципы зелёной экономики, природная среда, экологические вызовы, экологические инвестиции, экономические барьеры роста, утилизация отходов, эффективность развития.

Introduction

In recent decades, the global acceleration of industrialization and the rising demand for energy have led to serious environmental degradation. A significant portion of this demand has been met through fossil fuel-based systems, resulting in an alarming increase in greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions directly contribute to global warming, thereby threatening ecological balance, human health, and sustainable economic development [1].

Uzbekistan, like many countries in Central Asia, is facing mounting environmental challenges, including air and water pollution, desertification, and inefficient resource use. Climate change particularly endangers the country’s agricultural systems, water availability, and public health. In response, Uzbekistan has initiated several strategic programs, such as the “Green Economy Strategy 2019–2030” and the “Yashil Makon” (Green Nation) campaign, aiming to enhance environmental sustainability and adapt to climate risks [2].

The main goal of this study is to examine the prospects and challenges of implementing green economic principles in Uzbekistan. The paper outlines key areas where green growth policies are being applied and evaluates their potential to enhance economic resilience and ecological stability [3, 4].

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a global security threat with direct implications for national economies, social cohesion, and geopolitical stability. The environmental stress caused by extreme temperatures, declining water resources, and land degradation is reshaping economic development priorities across the world [5]. According to the Swiss Re Institute, an increase in global temperature by 3.2 °C by mid-century could shrink the world economy by up to 18%. Countries such as China, the USA, and European nations are expected to face considerable economic losses unless transformative environmental policies are implemented. Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan’s proactive engagement in green reforms signifies a critical shift toward integrating sustainability into national development agendas. The country’s environmental legislation is increasingly harmonized with international agreements, including the Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with emphasis placed on green technologies, water efficiency, and ecosystem restoration. The declaration of 2025 as the “Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy” highlights Uzbekistan’s commitment to accelerating this transition and positioning itself as a regional leader in environmental governance.

Materials and methods

This research is based on a qualitative-descriptive analysis of Uzbekistan’s national environmental policies, legislative frameworks, and development strategies related to the green economy. The main normative basis includes the “Strategy for the Transition to a Green Economy for 2019–2030” (approved by Presidential Decree No. PP-4477), as well as the national water and climate policy frameworks, such as the “Concept for the Development of the Water Sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2020–2030.”

The study also relies on international legal instruments and strategic declarations, including the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the Rio and Johannesburg Declarations on Environment and Development. These documents were used to benchmark Uzbekistan’s environmental reforms against global best practices.

In conducting the study, documentary analysis and content analysis methods were applied to review national legislative acts, government strategies, and institutional reports published by the Ministry of Ecology, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and the State Committee on Statistics. Data on water use, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, desertification trends, and green investment volumes were collected and compared across different periods. Particular attention was paid to identifying trends in policy implementation effectiveness and detecting gaps in institutional coordination and enforcement mechanisms.

To provide a structured evaluation, the research employed a multi-level analytical framework combining macroeconomic indicators with ecological performance metrics. Comparative analysis was conducted using regional and international data from the World Bank, UNEP, FAO, and the Swiss Re Institute. In addition, climate risk projections and demographic trends were integrated to assess the long-term sustainability of Uzbekistan’s development model under changing environmental conditions. This integrated approach allowed for assessing the alignment between declared policy goals and actual environmental outcomes, while also highlighting priority areas for policy reform and institutional strengthening.

Results and discussions

Uzbekistan’s transition toward a green economy reflects significant progress in both policy development and environmental awareness. One of the most visible achievements is the large-scale implementation of the nationwide “Yashil Makon” (Green Nation) initiative, which has led to the planting of millions of trees across urban and rural areas. This program plays a vital role in mitigating the effects of desertification and improving the carbon absorption capacity of local ecosystems.

At the same time, the government has launched efforts to decarbonize the transport sector—one of the country’s largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the State Statistics Committee, the number of privately owned passenger vehicles grew from 2.27 million in 2019 to over 3.05 million by 2022—a 34% increase within three years. As of January 2022, Tashkent alone had a motorization rate of 178 cars per 1,000 residents, significantly higher than the national average. Projections suggest that the overall motorization rate in Uzbekistan could reach 237 vehicles per 1,000 people by 2025. This rapid growth in vehicle ownership underscores the urgent need for green mobility solutions, including the domestic production of electric vehicles and the development of nationwide charging infrastructure.

In response, the government has prioritized the local production of electric cars and the introduction of green incentives to reduce reliance on internal combustion engines. These efforts align with European Union climate directives, which target a 55% reduction in emissions from new vehicles by 2030. Uzbekistan’s green strategy also outlines goals to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity production, improve water conservation, and modernize industrial infrastructure.

Despite these positive developments, the country continues to face serious environmental challenges. Climate change impacts are becoming increasingly tangible, with northern regions expected to experience temperature increases of up to 3°C by 2030. Water resources are under growing stress due to increased evaporation and plant transpiration, resulting in a projected 18% increase in irretrievable water losses. Additionally, desertification continues to expand, with over 100,000 km² of new desert areas reported across Central Asia, accompanied by a significant drop in biological productivity.

On the international stage, Uzbekistan has gained recognition for its climate leadership. The establishment of the University of Central Asia in Tashkent and the adoption of two UN resolutions on environmental protection underscore the country’s commitment to regional cooperation and ecological innovation. However, environmental risks remain systemic. As noted by European Parliament member Viola von Cramon, inefficient resource management, rising air pollution, and ecological degradation pose substantial risks to the health and well-being of over 35 million people in the country.

These findings highlight the dual nature of Uzbekistan’s green transition: while strategic planning and institutional frameworks are advancing, implementation gaps and structural inefficiencies must be addressed. Strengthening inter-agency coordination, improving environmental education, and enhancing public-private investment mechanisms will be crucial to translating policy into measurable results.

Figure 1. Vehicle production volume in Uzbekistan (2019–2025)

As shown in the figure, Uzbekistan’s vehicle production has experienced consistent growth from 2019 to 2022, with a recorded increase from approximately 2.27 million units in 2019 to over 3.05 million in 2022. Based on current production trends and industry forecasts, the number of vehicles is projected to reach 3.3 million in 2023, 3.55 million in 2024, and approximately 3.8 million by 2025. This upward trajectory highlights the expansion of the automotive sector, increased consumer demand, and broader access to personal transportation. However, such rapid growth also signals a rise in energy consumption and environmental stress, particularly in the form of greenhouse gas emissions. The data underscores the urgency for sustainable transport solutions, including the adoption of electric vehicles and the development of green infrastructure, to mitigate the ecological impact of rising vehicle numbers.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan’s transition toward a green economy reflects both meaningful progress and persistent structural challenges. The adoption of the “Strategy for the Transition to a Green Economy (2019–2030)” and national initiatives such as the “Yashil Makon” campaign signify strong political commitment to environmental sustainability. Investments in afforestation, water resource management, and green infrastructure demonstrate the government’s efforts to align economic development with ecological preservation.

However, climate change impacts continue to intensify, as evidenced by rising temperatures, desertification, and projected increases in irretrievable water losses by 2030. Additionally, the sharp increase in vehicle production-expected to reach 3.8 million units by 2025-raises urgent concerns regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions. Without robust mitigation strategies, such trends may offset gains made through green policy frameworks.

To effectively navigate these risks and opportunities, Uzbekistan must prioritize the development of a comprehensive green innovation ecosystem. This includes accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, advancing electric mobility, strengthening environmental regulations, and fostering regional cooperation in climate adaptation. Furthermore, integrating sustainability principles into all sectors-particularly transport, agriculture, and industry-will be essential for ensuring a balanced, resilient, and inclusive model of long-term growth.

Ultimately, the success of Uzbekistan’s green transition will depend on its ability to translate strategic vision into operational effectiveness, supported by data-driven planning, institutional accountability, and active public engagement.

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