OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES, AND COUNTERMEASURES FOR SINO-RUSSIAN SUB-REGIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION UNDER RUSSIA'S "TURN TO THE EAST"

ABSTRACT

Under the stringent sanctions, the Russian government's "Turn to the East" is becoming increasingly evident. The integration of Liaoning Province’s “Northeast Asia open cooperation hub” initiative with the Russian Far East’s “Turn to the East” policy creates multi-dimensional interactions. This synergy is vital for seizing the initiative in regional economic development and achieving highquality coordinated sub-regional economic growth, especially as we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. The purpose of this paper is to examine the opportunities, challenges and responses to strengthen Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation under the "turn to the East" strategy, and the analysis of this paper uses the methods of retrospective analysis, comparative analysis, etc. Through these methods, the activities were identified, the international development of industrial chain and supply chain, agricultural trade and the construction of land-sea corridor were determined, which can improve the level of regional economic integration.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В условиях жёстких санкций «Поворот на Восток» российского правительства становится все более очевидным. Интеграция инициативы «Северо-Восточного азиатского открытого центра сотрудничества» провинции Ляонин с политикой «Поворота на Восток» российского Дальнего Востока создаёт многочисленные возможности. Эта синергия политики двух государств жизненно важна для захвата инициативы в региональном экономическом развитии и достижения высококачественного субрегионального экономического роста, особенно в то время, когда мы отмечаем 75-ю годовщину установления дипломатических отношений между Китаем и Россией. Цель статьи заключается в рассмотрении возможностей, вызовов и ответных мер для укрепления китайско-российского субрегионального экономического сотрудничества в рамках стратегии «поворот на восток», при анализе данной работы использовались методы ретроспективного, компаративного анализа и т.д. С помощью этих методов были выявлены мероприятия, определены международное развитие производственной цепочки и цепочки поставок, торговля сельскохозяйственной продукцией и строительство коридора «суша-море», позволяющие повышение уровня региональной экономической интеграции.

Keywords: Sino-Russian economic and trade relations; Liaoning Province; Russian Far East; sub-regional cooperation; "Turn to the East".

Ключевые слова: Китайско-российские торгово-экономические отношения; провинция Ляонин; Дальний Восток России; Субрегиональное сотрудничество; поворот на Восток.

Fund Project: 2024 Key Project of Anshan City Philosophy and Social Science Research: Study on the Plan and Path for Deepening Economic and Trade Cooperation between Anshan City and the Russian Far East under the Background of External Circulation (as20242012).

Финансируемый проект: 2024 г. Ключевой проект по исследованию философии и социальных наук города Аньшань: Исследование плана и пути углубления экономического и торгового сотрудничества между городом Аньшань и Дальним Востоком России.

Introduction

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. and Western allies have imposed multiple rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, prompting the Russian government's shift of industrial and supply chains "toward the East" and advancing its "re-industrialization" efforts. In May 2024, President Xi Jinping and President Putin jointly signed and published the "Joint Statement on Deepening Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership in the New Era between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the Occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations" (hereinafter referred to as the "Joint Statement") in Beijing [1]. In August of the same year, Premier Li Qiang and Prime Minister Mishustin signed the "Joint Communiqué of the 29th Regular Meeting of the Chinese and Russian Prime Ministers" (hereinafter referred to as the "Joint Communiqué") and the "Minutes of the Fifth Meeting of the China-Russia Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee for the Northeast and Russian Far East Regions" (hereinafter referred to as the "Minutes") in Moscow, which provided significant momentum and support for promoting Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation [2].

In recent years (2014 to present), the research on this macroeconomic governance system centered around sub-regional international cooperation has been continuously enriched, laying the "macro foundation" for accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia in the new era. Notably, in October 2023, Hao Peng, Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, pointed out during his inspection in the Primorsky Krai of the Russian Far East that local cooperation is an important part of pragmatic cooperation between China and Russia. The development of the Russian Far East and the revitalization strategy of Northeast China are highly compatible [3]. The combination of Liaoning Province's equipment manufacturing industry and the abundant port and mineral resources of the Primorsky Krai in the Russian Far East creates a new model for high-quality coordinated development of ports and hinterlands. From the perspective of strategic geographical layout, Liaoning Province's creation of a Northeast Asia open cooperation hub is an important strategic support for empowering Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation. According to the above materials, the "Northeast-Far East" in deepening economic and trade cooperation is not only a key support for realizing high-quality coordinated regional economic development between China and Russia, but also the substantial policy benefits have created a favorable business environment for multi-level government leadership and multi-stakeholder participation, providing fundamental guidelines for Liaoning Province to deepen economic cooperation with the Russian Far East [4].

I. Current Status of Sino-Russian Local Economic and Trade Cooperation

Against the backdrop of the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's policy of opening up to the north and Russia's "Turn to the East" policy are synergizing, leading to continuous new achievements in Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation and development. Currently, the comprehensive expansion of economic cooperation between Liaoning Province and the Russian Far East not only provides a panoramic display of the profound connotations of the "political warmth and economic warmth" between China and Russia, but also serves as a crucial mechanism for maintaining the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership in the new era. However, research on sub-regional economic cooperation, especially cooperation in economically underdeveloped areas, is relatively lacking. This makes it difficult to extract highly compatible pathways for advancing the economic cooperation between Liaoning Province and the Russian Far East. Thus, addressing specific challenges during special periods is key to deepening the macroeconomic governance of Sino-Russian local economic and trade cooperation. This also provides the academic community with scientific research paradigms to seriously implement policies such as the "Joint Statement" and the "Joint Communiqué".

Table 1.

Trend of Foreign Trade between Liaoning Province and Russia, 100 million yuan

Source: Statistical Digest of Liaoning Province in 2014-2023[5]

Firstly, from the perspective of the total import and export trade volume between Liaoning Province and Russia, the average growth rate from 2014 to 2023 was as high as 14.6%. In 2023, the total import and export trade volume between Liaoning Province and Russia reached a peak of 50.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.33%. Among these, several indicators such as the export of manufactured goods, electromechanical products, and agricultural products to Russia exceeded market expectations. Secondly, regarding the scale of import and export between Liaoning Province and Russia from 2014 to 2023, there are two main points to note: The growth rate of imports from Russia to Liaoning Province continued to expand, with the growth rate significantly higher than that of exports. Throughout the period from 2014 to 2023, Liaoning Province maintained a trade deficit with Russia, and the scale of the trade deficit continued to expand. For instance, in 2023, the trade deficit with Russia reached 24.54 billion RMB, accounting for 48.4% of the total import and export trade volume [6]. It is evident that while comprehensively and accurately implementing significant projects and key initiatives such as the "Joint Statement," the "Joint Communiqué," and the "Three-Year Action Plan for New Breakthroughs in Comprehensive Revitalization of Liaoning (2023-2025)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Three-Year Action Plan"), the growth momentum of local economic and trade cooperation between Liaoning Province and Russia is favorable. However, special attention must be paid to the spillover risks of Russia's macroeconomic situation under stringent sanctions, particularly in the economically underdeveloped Russian Far East.

II. Opportunities and Challenges for Liaoning Province in Enhancing Economic and Trade Cooperation with the Russian Far East under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In September 2024, the four-day Ninth Eastern Economic Forum (Восточный экономический форум) successfully concluded in Vladivostok, Russian Far Eastern Federal District. Under the theme "Far East 2030: United Together, Creating Opportunities," the forum comprehensively and accurately explained the multi-faceted measures taken by the Russian government to promote high-quality economic development in the eastern regions within the framework of the "Strategic Turn East." It also highlighted key directions for proactively reshaping the industrial and supply chains in the Far East against the backdrop of global value chain reconstruction, laying a solid security foundation for the full-scale effort to build a high-quality, deeply integrated industrial and supply chain system with Asia-Pacific countries [7].

(1) Opportunities from Liaoning Province's Development as a Northeast Asia Cooperation Hub Combined with the Russian Federation's "Turn to the East" Policy

Since the 2014 Crimea crisis and amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Putin and Prime Minister Mishustin have repeatedly emphasized in various forums that the Russian government's "Turn to the East" is a crucial economic strategy and highlighted the importance of deep integration within the international industrial and supply chains [8-9]. Against the backdrop of the policy benefits continuing to materialize from the annual Eastern Economic Forum, the focus of foreign investment cooperation and development in the Russian Far East Federal District has gradually shifted from energy export trade and cooperation to the path of high-quality manufacturing development, accelerating the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure in the eastern regions [10]. For a long time, the Russian Far East has faced a lack of effective demand, heavily relying on imports for key materials, and its industrial and supply chain modernization levels urgently need improvement. The current regional policy dividends can be effectively leveraged to deepen Sino-Russian local economic and trade cooperation, especially with Liaoning Province, which has a synergistic effect between port and hinterland economies. The foundation for solid Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation lies in the "dual-port" linkage mechanism, specifically between Dalian Port in Liaoning Province and the Vladivostok Free Port in the Russian Far East. This can maximally activate the cross-regional synergy effects of the industrial chain policy benefits, better serving the high-quality coordinated development of Sino-Russian local economic and trade cooperation.

(2) Significant Characteristics of the Resource-based Economy in the Russian Far East and the Real Needs for Infrastructure Modernization

In December 2023, Minister Chekunov of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic proposed that 2024 would be a year of major construction for the Russian Far East. Comprehensive reforms in infrastructure investment and financing systems will provide momentum for the deep integration and efficient collaboration of the industrial and supply chains in Sino-Russian sub-regional areas [11]. Firstly, the Russian Far East holds over 30% of Russia's iron ore reserves. Trade in the ferrous metallurgy industry and iron ore is a focus for the full implementation of the "Joint Statement" and the "Joint Communiqué" decisions, and it presents a significant opportunity for the macroeconomic governance and cooperation between Liaoning Province and the Russian Far East. On one hand, under the "Strategic Turn East" vision of the Russian federal government, the infrastructure sector in the Russian Far East is actively expanding, providing strong support for the steel industry and iron ore trade in Sino-Russian sub-regions. On the other hand, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a long-term structural supply-demand imbalance in Russia's domestic steel industry, which is a critical link in addressing the overcapacity of Liaoning Province's steel industry. Secondly, the level of infrastructure connectivity in the Russian Far East is relatively lagging behind other federal districts, particularly in terms of intercity highways and railway networks in urban agglomerations. For example, the high-quality connectivity of highways between major urban agglomerations in the southeastern coastal areas and those bordering China has not yet been achieved. As for railways, the density of the railway network in the Russian Far East is only 18 kilometers per 10,000 square kilometers, significantly lagging behind other federal districts. Additionally, the high-speed rail between the Siberian Federal District and the Far East Federal District has not yet been opened, greatly limiting the relatively free flow of people and goods.

(3) The Strong Agricultural Foundation of the Russian Far East Provides Necessary Support for Strengthening Agricultural Cooperation with Liaoning Province

Under the backdrop of Russia's "Turn to the East," the continuous "recovery" of agricultural development in the Far East region is mainly due to four factors: Firstly, agricultural import and export trade has risen to the same strategic level of importance as "energy trade." The Russian Ministry of Finance has increased support for agro-industrial complex enterprises and new agricultural business entities, particularly in economically underdeveloped regions with relatively good agricultural foundations [12]. For instance, in 2023, the total trade volume of agricultural products between China and Russia was $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, accounting for 3.4% of China's total agricultural product trade. Among these, exports were $2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, accounting for 2.5% of China's total agricultural product exports; imports were $8.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, accounting for 3.8% of China's total agricultural product imports. Both import and export volumes reached historical highs. The trade deficit was $6.3 billion, expanding by 69.1% compared to the previous year. According to data from the Russian Federal Customs Service [13], in 2023, Liaoning Province's import of agricultural products from Russia ranked second nationwide, only behind Shandong Province, with an import volume of $970 million, a year-on-year increase of 36%, accounting for 11% of Russia's total agricultural product imports. Secondly, from the perspective of complementary agricultural trade between China and Russia, in 2023, China imported 160 million tons of grain, while Russia exported 66 million tons, accounting for approximately 41% of China's grain imports. The main grain crops include wheat, barley, corn, and soybeans, which effectively address the weaknesses and shortages in China's agricultural supply. Thirdly, according to the 2023 Far East Agricultural Development Report [14], the Far Eastern Federal District has 2.2 million hectares of cultivated land, accounting for 2.7% of Russia's total cultivated area, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The grain self-sufficiency rate is 116.5%, and the region is rich in fertile black soil, showing great potential for agricultural production. Fourthly, considering the main crop cultivation areas, the Russian Far East has 1.372 million hectares of soybean cultivation, accounting for 61% of all cultivated crops, 110,000 hectares of corn, and 72,600 hectares of barley. Especially, soybean, corn, and barley crops contribute to strengthening the agricultural industry foundation in Liaoning Province.

(4) Dual Impact of "Primary Sanctions" and "Secondary Sanctions"

Amid the intense Russia-Ukraine conflict and extreme sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Western countries, Russia's macroeconomic situation in 2023 did not experience a significant decline, largely due to the "Turn to the East" strategy and monetary policy. In October 2024, the Russian State Duma reviewed and passed the 2025 budget draft, setting a historical record. The budget expenditures are as follows: 13.5 trillion rubles for defense, an increase of 25% from 2024, accounting for 32.5% of the total budget expenditure; 6.5 trillion rubles for social policy, accounting for 15.7%; 4.4 trillion rubles for the national economy, accounting for 10.6%; 3.5 trillion rubles for national security and law enforcement, accounting for 8.4%; and 3.2 trillion rubles for debt repayment, accounting for 7.7%, among other expenditures [15]. It is noteworthy that the adjustment of the federal fiscal budget expenditure structure by the Russian federal government serves as a fundamental guarantee for the "special military operation" and represents a form of "passive restructuring" under stringent sanctions. From the perspective of deepening Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation, the majority of enterprises in the Russian Far East still adhere to the concept of "non-zero-sum game." The financial risks in Russia under stringent sanctions have become apparent, significantly eroding the profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises [16].

(5) Dual Contradictions of Labor Population Size and Structure

Since President Putin proposed at the Eighth Eastern Economic Forum in September 2023 that "the development of the Far East is a national priority of the 21st century," population factors have remained one of the core challenges constraining Russia's "Turn to the East" and its deep integration into the first tier of international multilateral cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries.

Table 2.

 Population size of Liaoning Province and Russian Far Eastern Federal District,10,000 people

Source: Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Rosstat [17]

The negative population growth in Liaoning Province and the Russian Far Eastern Federal District has sparked widespread anxiety about high-quality social and economic development. The significant outflow of population within these regions and the persistently low natural population growth rate pose substantial challenges to deepening Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation. It is noteworthy that in 2019, the population of the Russian Far Eastern Federal District suddenly increased by 2.024 million people, mainly due to the official inclusion of the Trans-Baikal Territory and the Republic of Buryatia from the Siberian Federal District into the Far Eastern Federal District. However, the actual population size within the region has been shrinking annually. For instance, in 2023, the population size of the Russian Far Eastern District was only 18.9% of that of Liaoning Province. Therefore, Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation must be wary of the multiple risks reflected by the "population trap," particularly concerning labor-intensive industries and the real economy, which have a strong attraction to population factors.

III. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Currently, Liaoning Province is actively promoting the establishment of a Northeast Asia cooperation hub to empower Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation. On this basis, deepening cooperation with the Russian Far East must be viewed from a multi-dimensional perspective. The new round of Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation should not continue the "extensive" model but should be based on the intersection of China's northward opening and Russia's strategic turn to the east. This approach ensures the implementation of the "Joint Statement," the "Joint Communiqué," and the "Three-Year Action Plan" in a practical and focused manner, avoiding deviations from the intended goals.

(1) Strengthening Cooperation in the Black Metallurgy Industry and Iron Ore Trade to Address the Shortcomings in Bidirectional Cooperation and Openness between Underdeveloped Sub-regions of China and Russia

Currently, the overlap between the Russian government's "Turn to the East" policy and China's policy of higher quality northward opening is significant. From an industrial structure perspective, the Russian Far East is positioned in the mid-to-lower tiers of the industrial chain, while Liaoning Province is positioned in the mid-to-upper tiers. Cooperation in the black metallurgy industry and iron ore trade effectively addresses the economic development shortfalls of these two regions. Firstly, actively promoting comprehensive strategic cooperation between Anshan Iron and Steel Group and Russia's leading iron ore mining company, Lebedinsky, through iron ore trade imports and steel exports can effectively drive the upgrade and transformation of key urban agglomerations and port infrastructure along the Russian Far East. This can also improve Russian logistics efficiency, reduce transportation costs, and speed up cross-regional turnover of goods in the process of Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation. Secondly, leveraging top local metallurgical universities in China and Russia, such as Northeastern University, Liaoning University of Science and Technology, Far Eastern Federal University, Kamchatka State Technical University, and the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to establish a Sino-Russian local metallurgical university alliance. This will help build a diversified and multi-level metallurgical talent training system, addressing the shortfall of "talent dividends" to compensate for the insufficient "population dividends."

(2) Expanding the Depth and Breadth of Agricultural Trade Cooperation to Enhance the Quality of Sino-Russian Local Bilateral Trade

In August 2024, the "Joint Communiqué" emphasized the need to actively expand the scale of bilateral cooperation in the agricultural sector, broaden the range of mutually accessible agricultural products, and expedite the removal of various import restrictions on Russian feed, winter barley, winter wheat, and rapeseed. Firstly, in the field of crop cultivation, by establishing communication and coordination mechanisms with relevant departments in Primorsky Krai and the Amur Oblast, the scope of integrated development cooperation can be scientifically defined. Secondly, in the livestock sector, the focus should be on reaching a high degree of agreement with relevant departments in the Trans-Baikal Territory and the Republic of Buryatia to provide a solid foundation for diversified development in animal husbandry. Thirdly, leveraging "Double First-Class" universities in Northeast China that specialize in agriculture, finance, and foreign languages to jointly cultivate "professional + Russian language" talents who are international and application-oriented. This initiative actively promotes the development of new agricultural sciences with doctoral programs in collaboration with universities in the Russian Far East, such as the Far Eastern State Agrarian University and the Far Eastern Agricultural Research Institute. Emphasis is placed on interdisciplinary integration to cultivate research talents with an international perspective.

(3) Leveraging the Overseas Industry-University-Research Institute Platform of Liaoning Province's "Mozi Workshop" to Construct a Tripartite Coordination Mechanism among Local Universities, Research Institutes, and Enterprises in China and Russia

Deepening the reform of the tripartite coordination mechanism, with universities and research institutes as the main bodies and enterprises as the leading forces, is a crucial power for promoting high-quality coordinated development in Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation. Firstly, based on the "Belt and Road" international vocational education system framework, it is essential to actively and steadily plan strategic cooperation among local universities, research institutes, and enterprises in China and Russia. This will consolidate and enhance the positive trend of Sino-Russian sub-regional economic recovery. Secondly, leveraging the overseas cooperation project "Mozi Workshop," high-energy open cooperation platforms should be established to integrate advantageous resources in the Russian Far East. This includes incorporating universities, research institutes, and key enterprises in the Russian Far East into the collaboration, promoting high-quality coordinated development of Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation through high-level bidirectional openness. Thirdly, constructing an international economic cooperation governance model with cross-regional participation of multiple stakeholders is crucial. Maximizing the local characteristics to deepen strategic cooperation in industry-university-research integration will shape new driving forces for the high-quality development of Sino-Russian sub-regional economic cooperation.

(3) Creating a Seamless Sea and Land Corridor between "Dalian Port" and "Vladivostok Free Port"

It is proposed to model the development concept of the "Binhai 1" and "Binhai 2" international transportation corridors in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces to create the "Binhai 3" international transportation corridor "aorta" between Dalian Port and the Russian Vladivostok Free Port. Firstly, Relying on the "Double Ports": Create a maritime corridor with distinctive features of Liaoning Province for opening up to the north, a major move to achieve "overtaking on a curve" in economic and trade cooperation with Russia and to promote high-level opening up. Secondly, efficient Interaction: Through the list of major and key projects such as the "Joint Statement" and "Joint Communiqué", fully activate the potential for opening up of Liaoning Province and the Russian Far East in black metallurgy, mining, high-end equipment manufacturing, shipbuilding, and fisheries through efficient interaction between the ports and their hinterlands. Thirdly, policy Benefits: Based on the continuous release of policy benefits of Dalian Port and Vladivostok Free Port, coordinate the development strategy docking of Liaoning Province and the Russian Far East, and strive to create a new model of China-Russia sub-regional economic cooperation.

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