WAYS TO INCREACE THE EFFICIENCY OF ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT PROCESSES IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT

In the article, the ways to increase the efficiency of enterprise management processes in conditions of uncertainty were analyzed. The possibility of using many scientific approaches to assess the existing uncertainties is mentioned. It was determined that the most correct approach to the problems of decision-making during the management of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty is the synergistic approach. Also, it has been revealed that the synergetic approach is the main component of system management and an effective tool for the development of innovation, and directly refers to innovative technologies.

АННОТАЦИЯ

В статье проанализированы пути повышения процессов управления предприятиями, работающими в условиях неопределенности. Отмечена возможность использования разных научных подходов для оценки существующих неопределенностей. Определено, что наиболее правильным подходом к проблемам принятия решений при управлении предприятиями в условиях неопределенности является синергетический подход. Также выявлено, что синергетический подход является главной составной частью системного управления и эффективным инструментом развития инновациями, а также напрямую относится к инновационным технологиям.

Keywords: uncertainty, enterprise management, management, risks, scientific approaches, synergetic approach.

Ключевые слова: неопределенность, управление предприятиями, менеджмент, риски, научные подходы, синергетический подход.

Introduction. It is known that enterprises operating in the modern economic environment regularly face various uncertainties caused by a complex of macro- and microeconomic, industrial, political, and other factors [1]. Because the analyzed economic systems are characterized by their complexity, uncertainty, and dynamism of ongoing processes. In the current economic literature, the term "uncertainty" is expressed in different forms. For the first time, the concept of "uncertainty" appeared only in the 20th century, separated from the category of "risks" in global economic theory, with the publication of the monograph "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" written by the American economist-scientist Frank Knight in 1921. In this book, he theoretically separated the concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty", described risk as a quantifiable probability, and uncertainty as an immeasurable, non-removable special factor [2]. Also, according to other economists, "Uncertainty is an imprecise perception of incomplete parameters arising from various reasons and from inaccurate information. Uncertainties arising during the realization of decisions about unfavorable situations and consequences are ultimately characterized by the concept of risk" [3].

Setting the issue. Uncertainty means the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about any economic process, including the necessary costs associated with it and the conditions for the realization of the obtained economic results. The presence of uncertainties greatly complicates the choice of optimal decisions in the process of managing conventional enterprises and leads to the emergence of scientific results that cannot be predicted in the future.

It is known that uncertainties are divided into two parts according to the factor of origin: economic and political [4]. Economic uncertainties are aggravated by some changes in the management of enterprises (for example, the uncertainty of the requirements set in market conditions, the scarcity of available information about the activities of competitors and business partners, etc.). Political uncertainty affects the change of several political factors affecting the activities of enterprises. It should be noted that these types of uncertainties are closely related to each other and are often very difficult to distinguish or evaluate in practice.

Solutions. Currently, many scientific approaches (including deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical, as well as based on the concept of linguistic variables and "fuzzy sets", etc.) are used to estimate the available uncertainties. The use of any special mathematical apparatus (for example, interval analysis, mathematical-statistical methods, deterministic models, etc.) to make optimal decisions under conditions of uncertainty allows the selected economic model to adequately reflect only certain types of information, while other types of information are lost. causes. Therefore, to evaluate the economic activity of the system from the point of view of uncertainty, combining different scientific approaches - in other words, a synergistic approach is required. For this reason, the most correct approach to the problems of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty is the complex study of quantitative characteristics obtained based on a synergistic approach using various known methods.

As a result of the intensification of macroeconomic processes, certain risks arise due to the uncertainty of market relations, industrial and political factors. It should be noted that despite the progressive nature of the decisions made in management, because of the negative impact of the uncertainty of the market environment, it becomes necessary to periodically make changes in the development strategies of enterprises [5].

In terms of probability, the uncertainty of events can be divided into 3 parts:

- complete uncertainty.

- complete certainty.

- fragmentary uncertainty.

Total uncertainty - characterized by predicted events close to "0". Any optimal decisions are possible when solving problems under complete determinism. At this time, the enterprise, with the previously provided probability, not only determines its individual strategy, but also its development trends, etc. can determine in the predicted interval (usually around z =0.9 – 0.99). Fragmental uncertainty tries to explain phenomena in the limit z =0 – 1.

In order, to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the future development of the business, various methods are used that characterize both qualitatively and quantitatively. When managing enterprises under conditions of uncertainty, the most accurate methods for evaluating action options are often considered to be mathematical methods based on probability theory and mathematical statistics.

At the current stage of development of the socio-economic system of the country, as the uncertainty in the management of enterprises is increasing, the control of processes in their structural units is disturbed, certain variability is observed in its external environment, and the correct management and regulation of economic relations becomes difficult.

Rapid changes in the external environment, on the contrary, encourage the creation of new methods, systems and scientific approaches in enterprise management, and the need to use strategic management arises. Because the main task of strategic planning is to move the enterprise from a certain position to a stronger position by adapting to external conditions, competition, market changes, and technology development. Insufficient attention to the study of the external environment leads to a crisis - a state of chaos and the bankruptcy of the enterprise because of making urgent decisions.

Thus, the practice of managing enterprises in the conditions of increasing uncertainty in the external and internal environment needs a new theoretical paradigm of adaptive management. It is based on a management theory created based on a synergistic approach, which fully meets the conditions of the innovative economy, aims to increase the flexibility of the provided technological support, allows to quickly change the development strategy, and stabilize the activity of the economic system.

As a result of the analysis, the following ambiguities affecting the registration process of enterprises were determined and showed in figure1.

Figure 1. Following ambiguities affecting the registration process of enterprises

(Compiled by author)

It is important and necessary to consider the mentioned uncertainties in the management process. Otherwise, the emergence of serious complications in the activities of enterprises and even their bankruptcy is inevitable.

Conclusion.

1.Uncertainties are one of the basic realities of life and cannot be excluded or excluded from any decision made in the process of managing enterprises. However, the following main ways to reduce or partially eliminate it can be identified:

- determining the main directions of development by involving as little uncertainty as possible in the economic activity.

 - correct selection of uncertainty evaluation criteria with the help of scientific research and information analysis.

- development of necessary proposals for predicting and preventing uncertainties in advance, etc.

2. The synergetic approach is the main component of the enterprise management process and an effective tool for the development of innovation, and directly relates to innovative technologies.

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