WATER DIPLOMACY IN CENTRAL ASIA: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

ABSTRACT

The article is devoted to water diplomacy in Central Asia, analyzing its role in solving transboundary water problems arising from uneven water distribution among the countries of the region. The article aims to explore contemporary challenges related to water resources, including climate change, demographic growth and competition for water. The article analyzes successful examples of water diplomacy, such as USAID projects and climate-smart water management initiatives, and offers recommendations for improving regional water cooperation.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Статья посвящена водной дипломатии в Центральной Азии, анализируя её роль в решении проблем трансграничных водных ресурсов, возникающих из-за неравномерного распределения воды между странами региона. Цель статьи — исследовать современные вызовы, связанные с водными ресурсами, включая климатические изменения, демографический рост и конкуренцию за воду. В статье анализируются успешные примеры водной дипломатии, такие как проекты USAID и инициативы по климатически устойчивому управлению водными ресурсами, а также предложены рекомендации для улучшения регионального сотрудничества в сфере водных ресурсов.

Keywords: water diplomacy, Central Asia, ecosystem, regional cooperation, water conflict, sustainable development.

Ключевые слова: водная дипломатия, Центральная Азия, экосистема, региональное сотрудничество, водный конфликт, устойчивое развитие.

Introduction

The distribution of water and the interdependence of nations make Central Asia one of the world's most distinctive areas. Large rivers like the Syr Darya and Amu Darya are vital for agriculture, energy, and population support. However, tensions or even conflicts arise between the nations in the region as a result of the unequal distribution of water resources and the absence of a comprehensive treaty framework on transboundary river concerns. In this regard, maintaining the ecological balance and bolstering regional security are two important goals of water diplomacy.

Historical context and contemporary challenges

Central Asia's water resources have long served as the foundation for the region's civilizations' existence and growth. However, the system of managing water resources saw significant changes with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the upstream states (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) controlling the primary water sources and downstream states (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) relying on its supply for business and agriculture, Central Asia has developed into a region of intricate transboundary connections.

The contemporary issues of water diplomacy include rising needs and demographic expansion. The growing population in the area strains the region's finite water supplies. According to projections, Central Asia's population could expand by 30% by 2050, increasing the need for water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes [1]. Water systems are already being overloaded by this expansion, particularly during dry spells. Under conditions of water scarcity, water security should be recognized as one of the key elements of national security [2].

In addition, climate change is having a major impact on the region. The glaciers that feed Central Asia's major rivers are melting at an astonishing rate. According to estimates by Bakhodur Sheralizoda, Chairman of Tajikistan's Committee for Environmental Protection, more than 30% of the region's glaciers could disappear by 2050, reducing river flows [3]. This will increase the likelihood of droughts and exacerbate water scarcity.

In addition, the interests of downstream states frequently clash with the usage of water for hydropower in upstream states like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. For instance, the Toktogul hydropower station on the Syr Darya River is essential to Kyrgyzstan's ability to generate electricity, but during the agricultural season, its operation has an impact on the water flow to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These inconsistencies exacerbate tensions and erode international trust.

Water diplomacy as a tool for regional cooperation

In order to settle transboundary water disputes and manage water resources to guarantee their fair distribution, conflict avoidance, and sustainable use, water diplomacy entails the use of agreements, cooperation procedures, and negotiations.

There are instances of effective water diplomacy in Central Asia, such as the USAID Regional Water and Environment Project, despite the current obstacles. It has a 21.5 million USD budget and will be implemented between October 2020 and September 2025 [4]. The project intends to boost transboundary cooperation in the water sector, encourage sustainable use of water resources, and enhance the management of water resources in Central Asia.

The environment in the northern portion of the sea has been restored thanks to the joint efforts of regional nations and foreign partners. For instance, the Kokaral Dam in Kazakhstan increased the water levels in the Small Aral Sea, which enhanced fishing and biodiversity. The advantages of combining economic and environmental action were illustrated by this project. Additionally, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Water Resources and the World Bank signed a Memorandum of Understanding on December 3, 2024, during the One Water Summit in Riyadh, to improve water management and advance environmental sustainability, especially in the Northern Aral Sea region [5]. The effects of climate change on Central Asian water resources, which exacerbate water shortage, make this agreement particularly pertinent. Saroj Kumar Jha, Director of the World Bank's Global Water Practice, emphasized the importance of this partnership for improving environmental conditions and benefiting local communities.

The German Ministry of Foreign Affairs' "Climate-smart water management in Central Asia" program, which is part of the Green Central Asia Initiative, is noteworthy. A joint action plan, which serves as a strategic roadmap for coordinating cooperative actions, including collaboration with international organizations, was created under this program in close collaboration with partner nations for the years 2021–2024.

Perspectives and recommendations

An integrated strategy that tackles important environmental, social, and economic issues is necessary for effective water diplomacy. The following factors should also be taken into account in order to use water diplomacy effectively:

1. Establishing a forum for frequent communication with the region's nations. These kinds of platforms can aid in the development of cooperative solutions and the avoidance of any disputes.
2. The efficient use of water resources will be enhanced by the implementation of cutting-edge technologies including smart irrigation systems, water flow management systems, and satellite monitoring.
3. Creation of educational initiatives and informational campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of conserving ecosystems and using water wisely.
4. Integrating adaptation to climate change into regional plans. This could involve creating tools like strategies for drought and flooding or insurance against climate risk.

Conclusion

In Central Asia, water diplomacy is a crucial instrument for both resolving disputes and guaranteeing the region's sustainable growth. Increasing international cooperation becomes crucial in light of the mounting problems caused by population increase, climate change, and depleting water supplies. In addition to enhancing regional security, effective water diplomacy can serve as the cornerstone for the development of a more wealthy and integrated Central Asian area.

Multilevel, coordinated strategies involving both diplomatic and technical processes are necessary for the effective resolution of water-related issues. A crucial component of sustainable water cooperation is the creation and use of cooperative plans for the management of transboundary water resources founded on the values of trust, respect, and consideration of the interests of all stakeholders. International organizations, academic institutions, and civil society all play a significant part in this process by facilitating the sharing of best practices, technology, and knowledge.

In this way, water diplomacy in Central Asia contributes to long-term stability and the balancing of relations among the states in the region, in addition to being a means of resolving immediate issues. In the end, efficient management of the region's water resources can serve as the cornerstone for developing a more prosperous, safe, and integrated Central Asian region that can effectively face contemporary dangers and problems.

References:

1. Naselenie Central'noj Azii prevysilo 80 millionov chelovek [The population of Central Asia has exceeded 80 million people] / [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: URL: https://el.kz/ru/naselenie-tsentralnoy-azii-prevysilo-80-millionov-chelovek_400005363/. - (date of access: 12.12.2024) [In Russian]
2. Kazangapova N.B., Kusainov K.K. Ekologicheskaya bezopasnost' vodnyh resursov kak element nacional'noj bezopasnosti strany [Environmental security of water resources as an element of national security of the country]  // Vestnik. – 2017. – No. 4. – P.142-144. [In Russian]
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