THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PROCESS OF DEMOCRATIZATION OF POLITICAL REGIMES IN THE WORLD IN THE POST-CRISIS PERIOD (2008-2022)

ABSTRACT

This article for discussion is published as an invitation to further dwelling upon modern Western European political thought. The limitations of this article are due to the fact that when discussing various points of view, the author did not consider research carried out outside the framework of the Western European social and humanitarian paradigm.

There is a debate in the scientific community about the dynamics of the democratization trend after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Some researchers (Boese, V. A., Edgell, A. B., Hellmeier, S., Maerz, S. F. and Lindberg, S. I.) note the emergence of a wave of autocratization that is currently ongoing. Other researchers (in particular, Merkel, W.) point to the stability of democratic regimes and the limited dynamics of autocratization. This article aims to answer the research question: how much has the trend of autocratization in the world intensified in the post-crisis period (2008-2022) compared to the previous period (1993-2007)?

To answer the research question, empirical analyzes were conducted in three steps. At the first step, a statistical analysis was carried out of the dynamics of the number of countries with autocratic regimes and the share of such countries in the total number of countries by macroregion using three methodologies: V-Dem, BTI, Freedom House. At the second step, the presence of a trend in the dynamics of the polyarchy index was assessed, according to the BTI methodology, for 1993-2022 based on regression analysis. It was concluded that the third wave of democratization, as predicted by some researchers, was replaced by a reverse trend toward autocratization. The results of the study showed that the global financial crisis became a break point, after which the level of democratization temporarily stopped growing (2008-2015), and then began to decline at an increasing rate (after 2015). The current stage is characterized by an intense and persistent trend of autocratization for most regions of the world, especially Africa, Europe, North and Central America.

АННОТАЦИЯ

Данная дискуссионная статья публикуется в качестве приглашения к дальнейшему обсуждению современной западноевропейской политической мысли. Ограниченность данной статьи обусловлена тем, что при обсуждении различных точек зрения автор не рассмотрел исследования выполненные вне рамок западноевропейской социально-гуманитарной парадигмы.

Существуют дискуссия в научном сообществе о динамике тенденции демократизации после мирового финансового кризиса 2008-2009. Некоторые исследователи (Boese, V. A., Edgell, A. B., Hellmeier, S., Maerz, S. F. and Lindberg, S. I.) отмечают появление волны автократизации, которая длится в настоящее время. Другие исследователи (в частности, Merkel, W.) указывают на стабильность демократических режимов и на ограниченную динамику автократизации. Эта статья нацелена на ответ на исследовательский вопрос: насколько усилилась тенденция автократизации в мире в посткризисный период (2008-2022) по сравнению с предыдущим периодом (1993-2007)?

Чтобы ответить на исследовательский вопрос, были проведен эмпирический анализ по трем шагам. На первом шаге был проведен статистический анализ динамики числа стран с автократическими режимами и доли таких стран в совокупном числе стран в разрезе макрорегионов по трем методологиям: V-Dem, BTI, Freedom House. На втором шаге было оценено наличие тренда в динамике индекса полиархии, согласно методологии BTI, за 1993-2022 на основе регрессионного анализа. Был сделан вывод, что третья волна демократизации, как и прогнозировали некоторые исследователи, сменилась обратной тенденцией на автократизацию. Результаты исследования показали, что мировой финансовый кризис стал break point, после которого уровень демократизации временно перестал расти (2008-2015), и затем начал сокращаться с растущей скоростью (после 2015). Текущий этап характеризуется интенсивной и устойчивой тенденцией автократизации для большинства регионов мира, особенно Африка, Европа, Северная и Центральная Америка.

Keywords: democratization, autocratization, prospects for democracies.

Ключевые слов: демократизация, автократизация, перспективы демократий.

Introduction

Assessing the development trends of modern political regimes is one of the relevant and controversial topics in comparative political science. The third wave of democratization, which ended in 1991, took different directions in subsequent years. In particular, Boese, V. A., Edgell, A. B., Hellmeier, S., Maerz, S. F. and Lindberg, S. I. (2021) point to the emergence of a sustained wave of autocratization that is currently ongoing. However, the intensity of the autocratization trend is a debatable issue, as pointed out by Merkel, W. (2014). Moreover, differences in methodologies for assessing democratization may also be an important factor in assessing trends. This article aims to answer the research question: how much has the trend of autocratization in the world intensified in the post-crisis period (2008-2022) compared to the previous period (1993-2007)?

Literature review

The problem of studying the dynamics of democratization and the opposite process of autocratization has been developing by researchers since the 1920s. Huntington S. (1993) developed the concept of waves of democratization, which alternate with waves of autocratization. Such patterns of development are based on various factors, including similar trends in the development of institutions, the impact of industrialization and informatization on society, the globalization of the world economy, and others.

According to Huntington S.'s approach, the third wave of democratization in the world lasted from 1974 to 1991. After 1991, in many regions of the world, democratization trends began to fade (in particular, in post-communist countries), and then the opposite trends began to appear more clearly, namely increased pressure on freedom of speech, a decrease in the quality of the electoral process, and a decrease in political competition (Merkel, 2014) .

Despite the fact that autocratization trends, according to researchers (Boese, 2021), began to manifest themselves most steadily in the early 2000s, some statistical indicators, such as the Freedom House Index, did not record a decline in the share of democratic regimes in the world (Freedom House, 2023 ). However, the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is considered by researchers as an important factor that had a stimulating effect on the trend of autocratization (Burnell, 2009). The long-term decline in the rate of economic growth of the world economy and the growing demand for populist leaders are among the most important factors that determine the features of the development of democratic institutions during this period (Merkel, 2014).

There is a debate about the depth and scale of development of the autocratization trend in the period after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Some researchers point to the serious threats to democratic development in many regions. In particular, Boese, V. A., Edgell, A. B., Hellmeier, S., Maerz, S. F. and Lindberg, S. I. (2021) note that the trend towards an increase in the number of transitions from democracy to autocracy is quite stable. Luo, Z. and Przeworski, A. (2019). The economic success of leading countries that have undemocratic political regimes was identified as factors that support this trend: primarily China and the Gulf countries. This factor is especially relevant in the context of a long-term slowdown in global economic growth. The structural features of the third wave of democratization are also considered by researchers as an important factor that determined the autocratic transition (Merkel, 2014). A significant proportion of countries that have realized a democratic transition as part of the third wave are post-communist countries. The long-term practice of the communist regime could have a negative impact on the development of political culture in these countries. In particular, this may be expressed in low involvement of the population in political processes (Kostelka, 2017), negative associations between a democratic regime and a deep transformational economic crisis (McFaul, 2005), and inertia of political elites (Urban, 2010).

Another group of researchers assesses the trend of autocratization as less widespread. Merkel, W. (2014), as a result of a statistical analysis, came to the conclusion that the spread of autocratization is more of a local trend than a global one. First of all, autocratization took place in Eastern Europe (for example, Russia, Hungary), where the political culture is experiencing significant consequences of communist regimes, and in Latin American countries (for example, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia), where the problem of economic inequality has not been solved for a long time period. At the same time, countries with relatively stable democratic regimes are not at risk of developing autocratization. Maerz, S. F., Lührmann, A., Hellmeier, S., Grahn, S., and Lindberg, S. I. (2020) acknowledged that there is a trend towards autocratization in the global community, but noted the presence of limiting factors, such as a record increase in the number of protests with sides of civil society. At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic and the institutional restrictions that have been imposed on the protests may provide additional impetus to the process of autocratization, according to Hellmeier, S., Cole, R., Grahn, S., Kolvani, P., Lachapelle, J., Lührmann, A. & Lindberg, S. I. (2021).

Methodology

This empirical study aims to test the research question: How much has the autocratization trend in the world increased in the post-crisis period (2008-2022) compared to the period 1993-2007?

Researchers have different interpretations of the depth and scale of the spread of the process of autocratization in the world. To answer the research question, an analysis will be carried out using statistical methods to assess the trajectory of the autocratization process during the period 2008-2022 compared to the previous 14-year period (1993-2007).

To answer the research question, empirical analyzes were conducted in three steps. At the first step, a statistical analysis was carried out of the dynamics of the number of countries with autocratic regimes and the share of such countries in the total number of countries by macroregion. Calculations were carried out based on the results of assessing the number of democratic regimes using three methodologies: V-Dem, BTI, Freedom House. These methodologies use different sources of information and different criteria to classify countries as democracies, so the analysis of the three methodologies aims to increase the reliability of the findings. At the second step, the presence of a trend in the dynamics of the polyarchy index was assessed, according to the BTI methodology, for 1993-2022 based on regression analysis. Random effects models were estimated for different subsamples depending on the data periods. The independent variable was time variable; the polyarchy index served as the dependent variable. The sample is a panel sample and includes 186 countries.

Results

The results of the empirical study showed that there is a stable trend of de-democratization in 2009-2022, according to all three methodologies (V-Dem, BTI, Freedom House). Analysis of the dynamics of the number of democratic regimes using the V-Dem methodology showed that in all regions except Asia, the number of democratic regimes either did not change (Australia and Oceania, South America, Europe) or decreased (Africa, North and Central America) (Table 1).

Table 1.

Dynamics of the number of democratic regimes in regions of the world, according to the V-Dem methodology

In general, the share of democratic regimes in the world, according to the V-Dem methodology, decreased slightly from 53% in 2008 to 52.4% (Table 2).

Table 2.

 Dynamics of the share of democratic regimes in regions of the world in 1995-2022, according to the V-Dem methodology

Although this decline is relatively small, this methodology shows a significant change in dynamics compared to 1995-2008, when the number of democracies increased by 21%.

The results of the analysis of the dynamics of the number of democracies using the BTI methodology show that the reduction in the share of democratic regimes in the total number of regimes is more significant. 53.7% of countries had democracies in 2008, but this share has fallen to 49.3% by 2022 (Table 3).

Table 3.

Dynamics of the share of democratic regimes in regions of the world in 2008-2022, according to the BTI methodology

Significant changes have occurred in the structure of democratic and autocratic regimes. Hard-line autocracy has become the most common type of political regime according to the BTI classification (Table 4). Defective democracy was the most common regime in 2008, but the share of this regime type decreased from 30.9% to 27.9% in 2008-2022. Moderate autocracy showed the highest growth rates - the share of this type of regime increased from 10.3% in 2008 to 19.1% in 2022.

Table 4.

Dynamics of the share of various types of political regimes in regions of the world in 2008-2022, according to the BTI methodology

The results of the analysis of the dynamics of the number of electoral democracies using the Freedom House methodology show a reduction in the share of democratic regimes from 42.1% in 2008 to 39.7% in 2022 (Table 5).

Table 5.

Dynamics of the share of electoral democracies in regions of the world in 2008-2022, according to the Freedom House methodology

Estimation of civil rights (-7.1%) on average showed stronger negative dynamics compared to political rights (-6.3%) for 2008-2022 (Table 6).

Table 6.

Dynamics of estimation of political rights and civil rights in 2008-2022, according to the Freedom House methodology

The results of the trend analysis showed that all regions except Australia and Oceania showed a decrease in the V-Dem polyarchy index after 2014 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Dynamics of the polyarchy index in 1993-2022

The results of the regression analysis showed that there was a positive trend in the polyarchy index in 1995-2007 (Table 7). This trend slowed down slightly in 2001-2007. The trend reversed in 2008-2022. The effect of time on the polyarchy index is estimated to be -1.6% per year during this period. In the period 2008-2015 there was a weak positive trend, but later the negative trend began to intensify - the strongest decrease in the polyarchy index was observed in 2018-2022 (-6.2% per year).

Table 7.

Results of regression analysis of the influence of time variable on the polyarchy index using the V-Dem methodology for various subsamples

** significance level 1%"

Conclusions

The third wave of democratization, as some researchers predicted, gave way to a reverse trend toward autocratization. The results of the study showed that the global financial crisis became a break point (according to the results of the Chow test), after which the level of democratization temporarily stopped growing (2008-2015), and then began to decline at an increasing rate (after 2015).

It can be concluded that the current stage is characterized by an intense and sustainable trend of autocratization for most regions of the world, especially Africa, Europe, North and Central America. The structural features of the third wave of democratization, the economic successes of leading countries that have undemocratic political regimes and the growing demand for populist leaders in conditions of low economic growth can be considered as the most important factors that determine this trend. Prospects for further research concern a more detailed assessment of the influence of various factors on the democratization process and forecasting the future dynamics of democratization based on an analysis of significant factors.

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